Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Death Cross Confirms Its Role as Fiat Liquidity Weathervane

Bitcoin's descent into a bear market appears increasingly likely after the formation of a "death cross," a technical indicator historically linked to prolonged price declines. On Nov. 16, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin (BTC) crossed below its 200-day SMA for the first time since January 2024, confirming a bearish shift in sentiment. This pattern, observed in prior Bitcoin cycles such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, has preceded drops of 64%-77% in each instance. The price fell to a six-month low of $80,500, breaching critical support levels and invalidating the macro uptrend.

The technical breakdown was compounded by broader market fragility.

Bitcoin closed below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level crypto analyst Rekt Capital had emphasized as crucial for maintaining bullish structure. "Bullish market structures are invalidated when the macro trend shifts," Rekt Capital noted on X, citing the inability of BTC to reclaim the EMA despite a brief rebound toward $87,000. Meanwhile, on-chain data revealed $800 million in realized losses from short-term holders, while the Fear & Greed Index hit 12, reflecting extreme pessimism.

Macro factors further exacerbated the sell-off. The Federal Reserve's ambiguous stance on rate cuts- currently projecting a 71% chance of a December cut- has kept liquidity constrained, pushing Bitcoin lower alongside equities. Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, warned that BTC could fall to $80,000–$85,000 if Treasury yields approach 5% and global markets retrace 10–20%. He framed Bitcoin as a "free-market weathervane" for fiat liquidity, anticipating a reversal only if policymakers intervene to stabilize markets.

Institutional sentiment has also turned bearish. ETF outflows in November exceeded $3.5 billion, with BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity trimming their exposure to MicroStrategy (MSTR), a key Bitcoin proxy. MSTR's holdings in BTC dropped from $36.3 billion to $30.9 billion in Q3 2025 as funds hedged against crypto weakness according to data. Meanwhile, exchange data showed put dominance at Deribit reaching $2 billion in open interest at the $80K strike, the most bearish positioning since early 2022.

Despite the dire technicals, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Peter Anthony, a crypto commentator, argued that every rebound is being labeled a "dead cat bounce," but he anticipates a potential rally to $100K–$110K as short-term liquidations subside. "The dead cat bounce will be fake," he wrote on X, suggesting that many sellers who incurred losses during the recent drop will wait to reenter the market. Similarly, K33 Research noted that Bitcoin's relative underperformance against the Nasdaq has reached 70%, the highest since July 2024, but described the current price as a "strong relative buy" for long-term investors.

The path forward hinges on key levels. Immediate support sits at $82,000–$84,000, with a breakdown potentially opening the door to $74,000, the April 2025 low according to analysis. Resistance at $92,000–$94,000 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and the 200-day MA at $106,000 will test the market's resolve. Citadel Securities' $200 million investment in Kraken and BlackRock's involvement in Bitcoin ETFs suggest that institutional adoption remains intact, though short-term volatility is likely according to market analysis.

As the market grapples with macroeconomic uncertainty and technical fragility, Bitcoin's trajectory remains uncertain. While a rebound to $100K–$110K is possible, analysts warn that a sustained recovery will require a Fed pivot toward easing and renewed risk appetite. For now, BTC is a "Hold" for long-horizon investors, with accumulation favored below $80K.