Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Death Cross: Bear Market Confirmation or Temporary Wobble?

Bitcoin's recent formation of a death cross-a technical indicator where the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day SMA-has reignited debates about the cryptocurrency's bearish trajectory. Analysts are split on whether this signals the end of the current macro cycle or a temporary correction. Benjamin Cowen, a crypto analyst, argued in an X post that while past death crosses have often marked local bottoms, their reliability wanes as macro cycles conclude. He noted that if Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fails to reclaim the $103,000 level within days, the odds of a deeper correction rise, potentially setting a lower high before a relief rally toward the 200-day SMA. This scenario would reinforce a broader downtrend.

Historical context complicates the narrative. Subu Trade highlighted that Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in the weeks to years following previous death crosses in April 2025, September 2023, and August 2024, with only a few exceptions. Similarly, Mister Crypto, another X-based analyst, emphasized that "every Bitcoin cycle has ended with a death cross", questioning why this instance would differ. He cited past declines, such as the 64% drop following the January 2022 death cross, which led to a bottom at $15,500 amid the FTX collapse.

Technical indicators further underscore bearish sentiment. Bitcoin's weekly close below the 50-week moving average-a historically significant bearish signal-has prompted Cowen to assign a 60%–70% probability that the cycle top is already in. On-chain data also reflects distress: Glassnode reported Bitcoin's realized losses exceeding $800 million, driven by short-term holders unwinding positions at a loss. CryptoQuant's IT Tech added that such selling often marks a local bottom if prices quickly reclaim cost bases, but failure to do so typically confirms a bear market.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) faces its own technical crossroads. The AUD/USD pair has oscillated near the 0.6480 level, with analysts warning that a break below its 200-day SMA of 0.6456 could trigger a slide toward October's low of 0.6440 and beyond. This bearish outlook aligns with broader economic conditions: Australia's mixed PMI data and China's slowing growth-despite a 4.0% Q3 GDP expansion-have left traders cautious. The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained a neutral stance, leaving rates at 3.60% and signaling no urgency for policy changes.

The interplay between Bitcoin and fiat currencies highlights a shared theme of market fragility. For Bitcoin, the coming days will test whether the death cross marks a cyclical end or a temporary pause. For the AUD, a sustained move below key technical levels could reignite selling pressure, mirroring the crypto market's struggle to find stability.