Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Cycle Theory Obsolete as Ki Young Ju Admits 54% Forecast Error

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 3:09 am ET1min read
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Aime RobotAime Summary

- Ki Young Ju admits Bitcoin's 4-year cycle theory is obsolete after his 2024 bearish forecast failed, acknowledging institutional dynamics now dominate price movements.

- He attributes the theory's collapse to institutional-to-institutional transfers replacing traditional whale-retail trading patterns, rendering old models ineffective.

- Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer contradicts Ju, asserting the cycle remains valid as Bitcoin hit $123,236 in July 2025, aligning with historical patterns.

- The debate highlights crypto's maturation, with institutional adoption reshaping market dynamics and diminishing retail investors' influence on price trends.

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has declared the "Bitcoin cycle theory" obsolete, admitting his earlier bearish forecast was incorrect. The theory, which traditionally linked Bitcoin’s price movements to a four-year cycle driven by mining halvings and whale behavior, has faced scrutiny after Ju’s prediction that the 2024 bull cycle had ended proved false. In a recent statement, Ju acknowledged his miscalculation, apologizing for the impact on investors who followed his advice and vowing to prioritize data-driven analysis in the future [1].

Ju’s revised stance stems from observations of changing market dynamics. He argues that the traditional bull cycle—where institutional "whales" accumulate

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during downturns and offload to retail investors during rallies—no longer applies. Instead, he notes a shift toward institutional-to-institutional transfers, with older whale holders selling to newer long-term institutional buyers, such as treasury management firms. This structural change, he claims, has rendered previous predictive models ineffective [1].

The analyst’s correction came after a notable market reversal. In April 2025, Ju predicted Bitcoin would stagnate due to overwhelming selling pressure, a claim that clashed with the cryptocurrency’s subsequent surge to an all-time high of $123,236 in July 2025—a 54% gain from his $80,000 price reference [1]. The analyst now attributes his error to underestimating institutional adoption and the evolving behavior of market participants.

Fidelity Digital Assets’ Jurrien Timmer, however, maintains a contrasting view. Timmer asserts that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact, citing the cryptocurrency’s recent all-time high and alignment with historical patterns [2]. His analysis underscores the ongoing debate among experts about whether Bitcoin’s price movements are governed by predictable cycles or increasingly influenced by institutional forces.

The debate highlights a broader theme in the crypto market: the diminishing role of retail investors in driving price trends. Ju points to a growing imbalance between long-term holders and traders, arguing that "trading feels pointless" in a landscape dominated by institutional activity. This shift, he suggests, could redefine investment strategies for both individual and institutional players [1].

The controversy surrounding the Bitcoin cycle theory reflects the maturation of the crypto market. As adoption expands and capital flows shift from speculative trading to institutional holdings, traditional frameworks for predicting price movements may require reevaluation. Analysts and investors are now tasked with navigating a landscape where institutional behavior, rather than retail dynamics, increasingly shapes Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, Top Analyst Says] [https://u.today/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-top-analyst-says]

[2] [Bitcoin continues to follow its 4-year cycle] [https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1654555555555555555]