Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Cycle Shift: From Supply Events to Central Bank Policies

Bitcoin's traditional four-year price cycle, historically tied to mining reward halvings, is likely obsolete due to evolving monetary conditions, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom. The analyst argues that past bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were driven not by halvings but by monetary tightening in major economies. In his essay "Long Live the King!", Hayes asserts that the current bull market will persist as global liquidity expands, rendering the four-year pattern irrelevant .

The halving cycle-where Bitcoin's supply is cut by 50% every four years-has historically coincided with bull runs followed by 70–80% price corrections. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, raising concerns about a potential bear market peak. However, Hayes attributes the current resilience to accommodative monetary policies. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with further reductions of up to 100 basis points expected over the next year. Japan, under a new prime minister, is also likely to adopt expansionary policies reminiscent of the Abenomics strategy .

U.S. President Donald Trump's economic agenda, which emphasizes growth and housing affordability, is expected to inject trillions into the economy by unlocking home equity. Hayes notes that Trump's policies, combined with Fed easing, will sustain liquidity and support Bitcoin's upward trajectory. Additionally, China's focus on curbing deflation suggests it will avoid draining fiat liquidity, indirectly bolstering BTC's gains .

Hayes' analysis challenges the notion that Bitcoin's cycles are supply-driven. Instead, he links price movements to global liquidity flows. Historical bull runs, including the 2017 and 2021 surges, coincided with monetary stimulus, while bear markets followed tightening cycles. The 2025–2026 phase, he argues, will be shaped by policy rather than halving mechanics .

The geopolitical landscape further supports this view. China's promotion of the digital yuan (e-CNY) aims to reduce U.S. dollar dominance, but Hayes highlights that the e-CNY's global impact remains limited. The U.S. dollar still accounts for 88% of global FX transactions and 70% of foreign debt issuance. Meanwhile, the U.S. GENIUS Act, which regulates stablecoins, reinforces dollar-backed digital infrastructure, ensuring the U.S. maintains its edge in digital finance .

Hayes concludes that Bitcoin's future is tied to the policies of central banks in Washington and Beijing. As both nations prioritize cheaper and more abundant money, Bitcoin is expected to continue rising in anticipation of sustained liquidity. "Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future," he writes, signaling a shift from supply-based cycles to policy-driven markets .

Source: [1] CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/09/bitcoin-crash-off-the-table-as-four-year-cycle-is-dead-arthur-hayes) [2] Coinpedia (https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-is-officially-dead-declares-arthur-hayes/) [3] BitFinance (https://bitfinance.substack.com/p/is-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-about-to)