Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Crucible: Bearish Tech Calls vs. Dovish Hopes

Bitcoin, currently trading near $112,000, faces a pivotal juncture as veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of a potential correction before it can reclaim its all-time high of $125,100. Brandt, known for his historical market analogs, emphasized in a recent X post that Bitcoin's failure to establish a definitive new peak within 30 weeks-a pattern observed in past cycles-could trigger a 75% price decline Cointelegraph^[1]. This warning comes amid heightened volatility following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, which precipitated a 10% drop in Bitcoin to $104,782 and over $19 billion in liquidations across crypto markets .

Brandt's analysis highlights the importance of Bitcoin reclaiming the $117,570 level to negate bearish sentiment tied to a potential double-top pattern. He acknowledged that while a 75% decline is unlikely, a pullback to $50-60,000 remains a possibility, citing historical precedents where parabolic price movements were followed by sharp corrections Cointelegraph^[1]. This view contrasts with optimism from other analysts, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who argued that U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication of ending quantitative tightening (QT) could spur fresh capital inflows into crypto Cointelegraph^[1].

The Fed's monetary policy remains a critical factor. Bank of America predicted the central bank would pause QT by year-end, potentially easing liquidity constraints and supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. However, stagflationary risks-driven by Trump's tariffs and rising inflation-could delay rate cuts and dampen Bitcoin's gains Bitcoin Magazine^[6]. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently signaled two additional 2025 rate cuts, aligning with market expectations of a dovish pivot Bitcoin Magazine^[9].

Historical cycles further complicate the outlook. Brandt noted that Bitcoin's current cycle, marked by a November 2022 low and a 2024 halving event, has followed a consistent 533-day pattern. If the cryptocurrency deviates from this cycle, he projected a potential surge to $185,000, though he cautioned that cycles inevitably evolve CoinMarketCap^[5]. Economist Timothy Peterson estimated a 50% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $140,000 by October's end, while others like Gemini's Saad Ahmed attributed price trends to investor psychology and market corrections CoinMarketCap^[5].

Market participants remain divided. While Brandt's bearish technical indicators suggest caution, macroeconomic analysts like Lyn Alden and Swyftx's Pav Hundal highlighted favorable conditions for Bitcoin. Lower oil prices, easing U.S. labor market pressures, and anticipated rate cuts were cited as bullish drivers Cointelegraph^[1]. Meanwhile, on-chain data revealed a drop in Bitcoin's 30-day Taker Buy/Sell Ratio to its lowest since May 2018, signaling short-term selling pressure The Coin Republic^[4].

The recent tariff-driven selloff also exposed vulnerabilities in leveraged positions. Over $16 billion in crypto liquidations occurred in October 2025, with Bitcoin dropping below $109,000 and altcoins like Ethereum and Solana experiencing double-digit declines. Some traders speculated about a whale profiting from pre-announced short positions, though these claims lack confirmation .

Despite the volatility, long-term fundamentals remain intact. Bitcoin's market capitalization has rebounded to $1.7 trillion, and institutional adoption-reflected in ETF inflows and corporate treasury holdings-continues to grow. Analysts like Capriole Investments' Charles Edwards stressed the need for risk management, warning that even 1.5x leverage could be perilous in a volatile environment Cointelegraph^[1].