Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Crucial Week: Bullish Accumulation vs. Bearish Whales and Macro Uncertainty

Bitcoin traders are bracing for a pivotal week as the cryptocurrency nears a potential local bottom following a 20% decline in November, with analysts split on whether the recent rebound signals a trend reversal or a temporary reprieve. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized around $87,000 after an 11-day sell-off that pushed it to a seven-month low of $80,600, with on-chain metrics suggesting mid-sized wallet accumulation could provide near-term support. However, persistent selling pressure from large whale holders and continued outflows from spot ETFs underscore lingering bearish sentiment as on-chain metrics indicate.

The November selloff has been exacerbated by weak institutional demand, with US Bitcoin ETFs recording $1.22 billion in net outflows last week—the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals according to reports. This trend aligns with broader macroeconomic uncertainty, including the Federal Reserve's delayed rate-cut expectations, which currently stand at 67.1% for a 25-basis-point move in December according to analysts. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors such as Donald Trump's proposed $2,000 stimulus check for US citizens, though viewed as unlikely by prediction markets, have added to market volatility as noted in reports.

Technical indicators offer mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has risen to 31, suggesting bearish momentum may be waning, while the MACD lines show a potential bullish crossover according to technical analysis. Conversely, the confirmation of a "Death Cross"—where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day line—has historically preceded deep corrections, with Bitcoin facing a 64% drop in 2022 and a 67% decline in 2018 according to historical data. Analysts caution that BTC must reclaim the 50-day EMA at $100,937 to validate a sustained recovery according to market analysis.

Bullish arguments hinge on historical capitulation patterns and institutional confidence. A Bitcoin analyst cited by Coindesk noted that a layered "capitulation-volume model" identified $80,000 as a high-probability bottom, with a 91% chance of a 35% rebound to $118,000 according to market analysis. This view is bolstered by Hilbert Group's recent purchase of BTC at $84,568 as part of its long-term treasury strategy, signaling institutional accumulation amid volatility according to financial reports. Additionally, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows mid-sized wallets (10–1,000 BTC) accumulating, though large whale holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) continue to offload according to on-chain data.

Yet bearish fundamentals remain entrenched. Large Bitcoin deposits to exchanges have surged, representing 45% of inflows since October, a pattern historically linked to failed support levels at $100K and $95K according to market analysis. USDT outflows from exchanges have also accelerated, reducing liquidity for spot buying and heightening downside risks according to exchange data. Deribit data reveals $2 billion in put dominance at the $80K strike price, the most bearish positioning since 2022 according to technical indicators.

Geopolitical adoption trends complicate the outlook. South Africa's three largest crypto exchanges now serve 7.8 million users, with platforms holding $1.5 billion in custody, reflecting broader African adoption despite volatility according to market reports. Meanwhile, SpaceX's transfer of 1,163 BTC ($105 million) to new wallets has sparked speculation about custodial shifts, though analysts attribute it to liquidity management rather than panic selling according to industry analysis.

The path forward hinges on macroeconomic catalysts and liquidity flows. Arthur Hayes of BitMEX posits that Bitcoin could rally to $200,000–$250,000 if the Fed intervenes to stabilize markets, though this scenario depends on Treasury yields and equity market performance according to market analysis. For now, traders are monitoring key levels: $82,000–$84,000 as immediate support, $74,000 as a bearish target, and $92,000–$94,000 as resistance according to technical analysis.