Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Crucial Support Test: Bear Market or Bounce Above $82K?

Bitcoin's price plunged below $86,000 on November 20, 2025, marking a seven-month low and triggering widespread panic among investors. The cryptocurrency, which hit an all-time high of $126,223 in early October, has since lost more than 7% of its value this year, signaling a potential bear market. The drop has intensified speculation that Bitcoin may end 2025 below $90,000, with a 50% probability cited by online options platform Derive.xyz.

The selloff has been fueled by multiple factors. Federal Reserve officials' less dovish stance on rate cuts, citing persistently high inflation, has dampened expectations of monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, concerns over quantum computing's potential to disrupt Bitcoin's cryptographic security-sparked by billionaire Ray Dalio's remarks-have exacerbated market fears. Compounding the pressure, a major whale dump by early adopter Owen Gunden, who sold 11,000 BTC for $1.3 billion, injected additional downward momentum.

Options market data underscores the bearish sentiment. Derive.xyz reported a sizeable concentration of Bitcoin "puts" (13,800 contracts) at the $85,000 strike price, set to expire on December 26. The likelihood of Bitcoin finishing 2025 above $100,000 has dropped to just 30%, according to the same platform. CoinGlass data revealed over $910 million in liquidations across exchanges in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $264.79 million of that total.

Retail traders are also bracing for further declines. Santiment's analysis noted a surge in retail predictions of Bitcoin falling below $70,000, though historical trends suggest markets often move against such extreme retail pessimism. CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index hit a yearly low of 15/100, mirroring levels seen before past rebounds.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. . Bitcoin is retesting a key support level at $82,000–$84,000, a critical zone for near-term stability. Analysts like @DefiWimar argue that a sustained rebound above this level could propel Bitcoin toward $125,000, though failure to hold the support risks a drop below $80,000.

Historical parallels offer cautious optimism. The post-2019 U.S. government shutdown rebound, driven by Federal Reserve quantitative easing, has been cited as a potential template for recovery. Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had recorded a five-day outflow streak, saw a $75.4 million inflow on November 20 as Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $92,000.

Macroeconomic headwinds remain a threat. Weakness in tech stocks, driven by concerns over an AI bubble, has spilled over into risk assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, leveraged trading on platforms like Coinbase has amplified volatility, with high-leverage positions triggering cascading liquidations.

Despite these challenges, some analysts remain bullish. The True Market Mean at $81,900 is seen as a critical support level; a breakdown below this could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction, while a rebound could stabilize the market. Long-term holders and ETF inflows are viewed as potential catalysts for recovery, though the path ahead remains fraught with uncertainty.

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