Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Crossroads: Trade Deal Hopes Clash with Technical Downturn and Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin's price has plunged below $115,000, sparking renewed concerns about its near-term trajectory amid a volatile mix of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and technical indicators pointing to potential consolidation or further declines, according to a Cryptonews exclusive.

The selloff has shattered expectations for a traditional "Uptober" rally, a historical pattern where Bitcoin often surges during the month. Instead, October 2025 has seen BTC drop 6% month-to-date, contrasting with its 19.7% average gain since 2013, the piece noted. Analysts point to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, a Section 301 investigation into Beijing's compliance with trade agreements, and broader macroeconomic headwinds as key culprits. Polymarket data showed a 52% probability of Bitcoin slipping below $100,000 by month-end as of late October, reflecting deepening investor unease.

While trade optimism briefly steadied markets last week, the outlook remains fragile. U.S. and Chinese officials reportedly reached a tentative trade framework to resolve disputes over tariffs, rare-earth minerals, and agricultural purchases, with final approvals expected from Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, according to a CryptoRank report. The agreement, which eliminates 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and delays restrictions on rare-earth exports, could ease supply chain pressures and boost risk appetite. However, the U.S. Trade Representative's ongoing probe into China's adherence to the 2020 Phase One Agreement introduces new uncertainty, potentially reigniting tariff threats if negotiations stall.

Technically, Bitcoin is consolidating around $114,500, with key resistance at $114,950 aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, CryptoRank's analysis added. A breakout above $116,000 could trigger a rally toward $120,571, while failure to clear this threshold risks a pullback to $108,667, mirroring a potential bearish double-top pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 suggests waning bullish momentum, and the price remains below the 50-day EMA, a critical trend indicator.

Longer-term forecasts vary widely. Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, argues that $115,000 is merely a mid-cycle level, with Bitcoin potentially surging to $1.2 million over the next two years if the bull run extends. This view contrasts with shorter-term pessimism, as some traders fear a "fluid geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop" could push BTC below $100,000. A "golden cross" technical signal—where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day—could catalyze a rally to $130,000, according to a Bitget analysis, but institutional profit-taking and regulatory uncertainties remain headwinds.

Bitcoin's next move will hinge on whether global markets embrace stability or descend into renewed volatility. For now, traders are bracing for a pivotal week as they monitor trade deal progress, USTR probe outcomes, and broader liquidity trends.