Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin at a Crossroads: ETF Momentum vs. Geopolitical Jitters

Bitcoin's recent price action has sparked debate over whether the cryptocurrency has fully recovered from its post-peak correction. After reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $126,293 in early October 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) retreated to around $111,000 amid a U.S.-China trade-related sell-off that liquidated $19–20 billion in leveraged positions . Technical analysts highlight a bullish structure across timeframes, with key support levels at $108,150–$105,000 and resistance near $126,293 Bitcoin: New All-Time High, but Caution Required^[1]. Derivatives data reinforces this, showing rising open interest, positive funding rates, and short-position liquidations during the breakout Bitcoin: New All-Time High, but Caution Required^[1].

Institutional adoption remains a critical tailwind. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, have attracted record inflows, with global crypto ETFs absorbing $5.95 billion in the week ending October 4 . These inflows pushed BTC to its ATH before a temporary pullback. Public companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla now hold 1.1 million BTC (5.6% of supply), while ETFs and corporate treasuries collectively control 12.2% of the total supply . This institutional accumulation has reduced Bitcoin's volatility (from ~4.2% daily pre-ETF to ~1.8% post-ETF) and deepened market liquidity .

Macroeconomic factors further support a bullish case. Global M2 money supply reached $55.48 trillion in July 2025, with Bitcoin historically lagging M2 expansions by 3–6 months . The U.S. dollar (DXY) has weakened 10.8% year-to-date, a trend historically correlated with BTC rallies . Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, which began in September 2025, has reduced borrowing costs and increased risk-on sentiment . Analysts like Standard Chartered project $200,000 by late 2025 and $300,000 by 2026, citing ETF-driven demand and tightening supply dynamics .

However, risks persist. A sudden U.S.-China trade escalation in late October triggered a 10% BTC drop, exposing vulnerabilities in leveraged positions . On-chain metrics indicate 30% of Bitcoin's supply was last traded within ±15% of current prices, suggesting potential volatility if sentiment shifts . Technical indicators like RSI and stochastic models also show overbought conditions, warning of possible consolidation Bitcoin: New All-Time High, but Caution Required^[1]. Bearish scenarios, including a Fed pause in rate cuts or a global recession, could push BTC below $100,000 .

Market structure suggests Bitcoin is not entirely out of the woods. While institutional demand and macro trends remain supportive, short-term overbought conditions and geopolitical risks necessitate caution. Traders should monitor key levels: a sustained break above $120,000 could target $126,300, while a breakdown below $119,345 may trigger a pullback to $117,500 Bitcoin: New All-Time High, but Caution Required^[1]. Long-term fundamentals, including ETF adoption and M2-driven liquidity, remain intact, but near-term volatility is likely as the market digests these dynamics.