Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin at crossroads: Bulls eye $125K breakout as bears loom with $100K threat

Bitcoin's price has dipped below $120,000, triggering a 10% correction in recent trading sessions, as technical indicators and market sentiment signal heightened bearish pressure. The cryptocurrency oscillated between $115,000 and $120,000, with analysts emphasizing the critical need for a breakout above $120,500 to reinvigorate the bullish case . Short-term holders (STHs) have shown resilience, with accumulation activity reflected in the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) rebounding above neutral levels . However, cumulative volume delta (CVD) metrics remain negative at -$111.3 million, indicating persistent sell-side dominance despite a reduction in intensity .

Technical analysis highlights a key resistance zone between $120,000 and $123,000, which bulls aim to surpass to target $130,000. A falling wedge pattern on the four-hour chart has been confirmed, with retests of the $118,300 level reinforcing potential support . Conversely, bearish scenarios suggest a correction toward $100,000–$104,000, with extreme downside risks extending to $72,000–$75,000 if critical support levels fail . The derivatives market has also flashed mixed signals, with $24.28 million in short liquidations versus $17.16 million in long liquidations over the past 24 hours, alongside a 65% surge in trading volume to $149.47 billion .

Institutional demand has emerged as a stabilizing force, with Bitcoin ETFs recording $947.9 million in inflows over two days in late September. This surge, driven by firms like Fidelity, BlackRock, and Bitwise, reversed earlier mid-September outflows and signaled renewed confidence in the asset . Meanwhile, the spot volume delta has declined to $8.6 billion from $9.2 billion, reflecting reduced speculative activity and a wait-and-see stance among investors . Analysts caution that sustained ETF inflows and accumulation at current levels could drive Bitcoin toward new highs, but a breakdown below $105,000 would trigger deeper corrections .

Market volatility has also intensified, with Bitcoin's 7-day realized volatility plummeting to 20% in September, well below its 2025 average of 42%. This dislocation between implied and realized volatility-where options pricing remains 1.5x higher-suggests structural uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting . The 180-day call-put skew on Deribit turned negative to -0.42, the lowest since June 2023, reflecting heightened demand for downside protection . This shift aligns with broader risk-off sentiment, as U.S. job market data and potential government shutdowns add macroeconomic uncertainty .

Looking ahead, October presents a pivotal test for Bitcoin. Historical seasonality favors October and November, with BTC averaging 22% and 46% returns, respectively, since 2013 . Analysts project a potential breakout above $118,000–$119,000, with sustained momentum toward $125,000 contingent on institutional inflows and macroeconomic clarity . However, a failure to hold above $114,000 could reignite bearish scenarios, testing support at $107,000–$108,000 . The derivatives market's bearish skew and weak volume metrics underscore the fragility of the current rally, emphasizing the need for caution among traders .

Source: [1] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-analysts-say-this-must-happen-for-btc-price-to-hit-new-highs)

Source: [3] BTCC (https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/Newsbtc/814589)

Source: [4] Financemagnates (https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-low-can-bitcoin-go-in-september-2025-bearish-btc-price-prediction-scenarios-support-analysis/)

Source: [5] LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/btc-realized-volatilities-fall-historic-low-while-skew-turns-wzv6c/)

Source: [6] Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/21/key-bitcoin-indicators-hint-at-bearish-regime-shift-as-jackson-hole-nears)

Source: [7] FxLeaders (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/10/01/bitcoin-holds-114-technical-levels-signal-explosive-october-and-q4-ahead/)

Source: [8] Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/29/bitcoin-above-usd114k-amid-shutdown-uncertainty-october-could-offer-relief)

Source: [9] MExc (https://www.mexc.com/en-GB/news/btc-breaks-114k-etfs-fuel-massive-october-rally/115638)