Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Crossroads: Bear Market Confirmation or Mid-Cycle Consolidation?

Bitcoin's recent price action has sparked debate over whether the market is entering a bearish phase or experiencing a mid-cycle consolidation. The cryptocurrency, trading above $105,000 as of Tuesday, faces critical technical and on-chain signals that could determine its near-term trajectory. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has warned that a drop below $94,000 would confirm a bear market, while analysts from Bitfinex argue the current pullback resembles prior mid-cycle corrections.

Institutional and retail demand for Bitcoin and altcoins like Ethereum and XRP have weakened, with persistent outflows from spot ETFs underscoring waning investor enthusiasm. Data from SoSoValue shows Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.15 million in inflows on Monday, but this pales against outflows of $1.22 billion and $799 million in the preceding two weeks. Retail demand also remains subdued, with Bitcoin futures open interest declining to $68.37 billion from a $94.12 billion peak in October.

The bearish sentiment is amplified by heavy selling from long-term holders, or "whales." Over the past 30 days, these entities have offloaded 815,000 BTC, the highest level since January 2024. This selling pressure has pushed Bitcoin's price below key technical levels, including the 365-day moving average near $102,000 according to technical analysis. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index has plummeted to 20 from 80 in October, reflecting a sharp shift in market sentiment.

Despite these headwinds, some analysts see a path for stabilization. Bitfinex highlighted that 72% of Bitcoin's supply remains in profit, a positive sign for mid-cycle consolidation. The firm compared the current correction to those in June 2024 and February 2025, which saw rebounds after roughly 22% drawdowns from all-time highs. Meanwhile, ETF inflows have so far offset whale selling, with Bitcoin ETFs maintaining net inflows of $59.97 billion as of November 10.

However, the market's fragility is evident in rising short positions and negative funding rates. Ethereum's OI-Weighted Funding Rate dropped to 0.0007% on Tuesday, signaling increased bearish bias. For Bitcoin, the path forward hinges on whether institutional and retail demand can reaccelerate. Ki Young Ju noted that if ETF buying cools, sellers could dominate the market.

Technical indicators suggest further downside risk. Bitcoin must reclaim the $102,000 level to avoid a deeper correction, with the next critical support at $94,000. Failure to hold above this threshold could trigger a sell-off to $819, according to on-chain analysis. The broader market is also under pressure, with BNB Chain experiencing a 15% drop in transaction volume and Ethereum ETFs recording zero net flows on Monday.

As the U.S. government shutdown nears resolution, macroeconomic uncertainty remains a wildcard. Investors are bracing for delayed economic data, which could influence Federal Reserve policy and, by extension, risk assets. For now, Bitcoin's fate appears tied to the interplay between whale selling, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic developments - a dynamic that will define the next chapter in its 2025 journey.