Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Critical Threshold: Bulls Target $100K While Bears Eye Deeper Declines

Bitcoin's November Gains Probed as Analysts Cite 'Skewed' Data Amid Market Turmoil

Bitcoin's recent price action has sparked debate among analysts, with some questioning the validity of November's average gains amid a broader market selloff. The cryptocurrency, which surged to an all-time high of $126,250 in October, has since retreated sharply, trading at $91,588 as of Nov. 17-its lowest level since early March 2025 according to market data. The drop has left the average 2025 buyer at a 13% loss, as the price has fallen below the year's realized cost basis of $103,227.

Market sentiment has deteriorated to "extreme fear," with the Fear & Greed Index hitting 10, its lowest reading since February 2025. The selloff is attributed to a confluence of factors, including profit-taking by long-term holders, institutional outflows, macroeconomic uncertainty, and leveraged long positions being liquidated. Jake Kennis of Nansen noted that the decline reflects "a confluence of factors," while Jake Dennis of QCP Capital emphasized that the market has "temporarily chosen a downward direction after a long period of consolidation."

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. Bitcoin's price has entered oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a potential sign of weakening selling pressure. However, a key psychological barrier at $100,300 - previously a support level since April - now acts as resistance. Analysts caution that without a sustained close above this level, the bullish divergence in RSI remains unconfirmed. Meanwhile, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has plummeted to 0.40, its lowest in a year, suggesting a potential bottoming scenario.

The broader crypto market has mirrored Bitcoin's struggles, with the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index losing 5.8% of its value over the past week. The selloff has been exacerbated by reduced institutional demand and macroeconomic risks, including delayed U.S. government data releases and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. "The market is grappling with a perfect storm of liquidity constraints and macro uncertainty," said QCP Capital analysts.

Corporate developments have also weighed on sentiment. KindlyMD's shares plunged nearly 10% after missing its Q3 earnings deadline due to complex accounting from its merger with Nakamoto. The company reported a $59 million loss on the acquisition and $22 million in unrealized crypto losses according to financial reports. Meanwhile, Hyperscale Data reaffirmed its dollar-cost-averaging strategy amid volatile prices.

Bitcoin's price action has drawn comparisons to its April correction, when the price fell from $109,000 to $76,000 over 80 days. The current downturn, while steeper in percentage terms, has lasted only 43 days so far. Traders are closely watching the $93,961 support level and the $100,000 psychological threshold for signs of a reversal.

Despite the bearish trend, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. The formation of a higher low in Bitcoin's price since April suggests the broader uptrend is intact, while hidden bullish divergence in RSI and CCI indicators hints at potential rebounds. However, most technical indicators - including the ADX, MACD, and moving averages - still favor the bears according to technical analysis.

Institutional players, too, are divided. Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy denied reports of selling Bitcoin, reaffirming the company's accumulation strategy. Meanwhile, Canaan Inc. highlighted North America's resilience in Q3 despite Bitcoin's volatility, with the region accounting for over 50% of its Q4 demand.

As the market awaits clarity, the path forward hinges on Bitcoin reclaiming key levels with conviction. A sustained close above $100,300 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $93,961 risks further downside. For now, the battle between bulls and bears continues, with the outcome shaping the trajectory of one of 2025's most turbulent markets.