Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Converging Holder Costs Signal Bull Market Inflection Point

Bitcoin's recent price consolidation near $114,000 has sparked renewed optimism among market participants, with improving miner economics and whale activity signaling potential catalysts for a bullish reversal. The cryptocurrency is navigating a critical juncture where short-term, medium-term, and long-term holder cost bases are converging, a pattern often associated with approaching the bottom phase of a bull market cycle, according to a Crypto.news analysis.

Miner reserves have stabilized after months of forced selling, alleviating one of the primary sources of downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Hashprice metrics—reflecting the revenue miners earn per unit of computational power—are improving, enabling them to retain rather than liquidate Bitcoin awards, the Crypto.news analysis notes. This shift has reduced structural sell pressure and bolstered miner profitability, with transaction fees and Layer-2 adoption contributing to stronger on-chain activity. Analysts suggest that a sustained break above the $118,000–$120,000 resistance level could trigger a technical breakout toward $125,000–$130,000, echoing earlier post-halving highs.

Meanwhile, institutional investors—often referred to as "whales"—are strategically closing short positions, a move interpreted as a precursor to a potential bullish reversal or accumulation phase, according to a Wedbush report. This activity follows a sharp October correction that saw Bitcoin plunge from $122,500 to $104,600 amid $19.1 billion in leveraged liquidations. While the cryptocurrency has found some stability around $108,000–$109,789, the $108,000–$110,000 zone remains a critical support level. A sustained rebound above $114,000 could invalidate the recent downtrend and set the stage for a recovery toward $125,605, the Wedbush report adds.

The interplay between miner economics and whale behavior underscores a broader shift in market sentiment. While short-term holders' cost basis remains at approximately $113,100—indicating "demand exhaustion and fading momentum"—the actions of large investors suggest a strategic repositioning. Some whales are not only closing shorts but also opening new long positions, signaling confidence in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. Historical precedents, such as a $330 million short liquidation in early October that propelled Bitcoin above $120,000, highlight how such moves can drive significant upward momentum, according to the Wedbush report.

Macro factors further complicate the outlook. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including those from BlackRock, recorded net outflows of $101.29 million recently, yet liquidity remains robust, the Wedbush report notes. Institutional interest is growing, with firms like T. Rowe Price increasing Bitcoin allocations. Regulatory clarity, particularly the potential repeal of SAB 121, could further accelerate adoption. Analysts from VanEck and Copper Research project a recovery toward $125,000–$130,000 by mid-December, while more optimistic forecasts anticipate $150,000 by year-end or $200,000 by early 2026, the Wedbush report adds.

Downside risks persist, however. A drop below $110,000 could reignite miner capitulation and macro-driven selling, particularly if global liquidity conditions tighten, the Crypto.news analysis warns. The broader crypto ecosystem has also felt the correction's impact, with DeFi protocols experiencing liquidations and NFT trading volumes dipping. Yet, projects with strong fundamentals and utility are showing resilience, and Bitcoin scalability initiatives like Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) are attracting speculative interest, the Wedbush report observes.

The convergence of miner stability, whale repositioning, and institutional demand positions Bitcoin at a pivotal inflection point. While volatility is expected in the short term, the long-term outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish, driven by Bitcoin's scarcity, halving cycles, and deepening integration into traditional finance. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels, whale activity, and regulatory developments as the market navigates this critical phase.