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Bitcoin’s recent trading dynamics have positioned the cryptocurrency at a pivotal juncture, with analysts suggesting a potential end to a consolidation phase that has confined prices between $115,000 and $120,000. According to Farside Investors data, net outflows of $285.2 million from U.S.-based spot
ETFs over the past three days highlight investor caution [1]. Despite this, bears have struggled to push prices below $115,000, a key support level that has held firm, suggesting sustained buying pressure from long-term holders [1].Technical indicators point to a bias toward the upside. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $115,961 and a relative strength index (RSI) in positive territory on the daily chart indicate that the path of least resistance remains higher [1]. A sustained break above the $120,000 resistance level could trigger a resumption of the uptrend, with analysts forecasting potential targets of $135,729 and even $150,000 if momentum accelerates [1]. This projection aligns with a "pennant" pattern observed on 4-hour charts, a continuation formation often preceding sharp price moves [2]. The consolidation near all-time highs suggests buyers are maintaining control, anticipating further gains [1].
However, risks remain. A close below the 20-day SMA or $115,500 could signal bearish dominance, prompting short-term sellers to exit and potentially driving prices toward $110,530 [1]. A sustained break below this level would shift the balance in favor of sellers, challenging the recent bullish narrative. The 4-hour chart currently shows flattened moving averages and an RSI near the midpoint, indicating a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers [1]. Analysts emphasize that a break and close above $123,218—part of the overhead resistance zone—would validate the bullish case, while a failure to hold $115,500 would invalidate it [1].
The market’s current state reflects a tug-of-war between cautious investors and determined bulls. While ETF outflows underscore near-term uncertainty, the resilience of key support levels and technical patterns suggest that buyers are not ceding control easily. The coming days will likely determine whether Bitcoin’s consolidation culminates in a breakout or a correction.
Sources:
[1] [Bitcoin Consolidation May End With Rally To $135K](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-consolidation-expected-to-end-with-impulse-move-to-dollar135k-data)
[2] [Pennant — Trading Ideas on TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/pennant/)

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