Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Consolidates Near $87K as ETF Flows and Rate Hopes Shape Market Outlook

Bitcoin appears poised for a prolonged consolidation phase after retreating from its October peak of $126,000. Market observers are watching closely as the cryptocurrency trades near $87,000, with ETF inflows offering a temporary counterbalance to bearish pressure. Meanwhile, prediction markets are gaining traction, with Robinhood reporting $100 million in Q3 revenue from the segment.

The recent surge in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows has provided some stability to the market. SoSoValue data reveals a $457 million inflow on Wednesday, breaking a two-day outflow streak and offering renewed optimism for institutional demand. However, analysts caution that BTC could remain range-bound until new liquidity absorbs overhead supply.

Glassnode reports that Bitcoin remains trapped between $81,000 and $95,000, with heavy selling above $95,000 preventing a strong breakout. The platform's weekly analysis highlights the importance of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500 as a critical threshold.

Until that level is reclaimed, further downside remains a risk.

How Markets Reacted

Bitcoin ETFs have become a key indicator for the broader market. Recent inflows into U.S.-listed funds have helped counter near-term selling pressure, with the largest single-day inflow since November 11. However, the ETF landscape is not without turbulence. Some funds have recorded outflows, including a $903 million outflow in a single day.

Despite these challenges, corporate demand remains strong. Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. has continued to accumulate Bitcoin, purchasing nearly $1 billion worth of the asset in recent weeks. The company's latest acquisition brings its total holdings to 671,268 BTC, reinforcing institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring the interplay between Bitcoin and macroeconomic events, particularly the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) upcoming interest rate decision. With Polymarket assigning a 99% probability to a rate hike, the potential impact on global liquidity is a major concern for investors. A rate hike could reduce liquidity and trigger further declines in speculative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Technical indicators also suggest a cautious outlook. Bitcoin's 4-hour chart shows a bearish flag pattern, with the price approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders are watching for a break below $85,569, which could extend the decline toward the psychological $80,000 level. Conversely, a sustained hold above $85,200 could reignite upward momentum toward $90,000 and beyond.

Prediction markets are also attracting attention, particularly in the retail space. Robinhood has reported significant growth in this segment, with 3 billion event contracts traded in November. The platform's expansion into sports prediction markets, including player-specific performance contracts, reflects the growing appeal of these financial instruments. Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe prediction markets could reach 1 trillion contracts in 2027 and 5 trillion by 2029, with Robinhood well-positioned to benefit from this trend.

Risks to the Outlook

While the institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains robust, macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on the market. Rising expectations for higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, combined with persistent inflation and tariff concerns, have pushed investors toward a defensive stance. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen significant outflows, with U.S.-listed funds recording roughly $3.3–$3.7 billion in net withdrawals from mid-November to mid-December.

Derivatives data reflects a cautious positioning in the market. Open interest has declined, and options traders favor defensive strategies. These signals suggest limited expectations for near-term upside and a preference for risk mitigation. Bitcoin's recent decoupling from traditional risk assets, such as equities and bonds, further underscores the fragility of current market sentiment.

As the market navigates these uncertainties, the coming weeks will be critical for Bitcoin's trajectory. The interplay between macroeconomic policy, corporate demand, and investor sentiment will shape whether the cryptocurrency stabilizes or faces a deeper correction. With so much at stake, the crypto community remains on high alert for any signs of a major market shift.