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Bitcoin has been trading within a consolidation range between $115,000 and $120,000, with $117,000 emerging as a critical support level defined by on-chain cost basis distribution patterns. According to Glassnode’s BTC Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, this price zone has attracted consistent buying pressure, acting as a key anchor for capital rotation into Bitcoin. The heatmap reveals dense clusters of cost basis activity near $117,000, reinforcing its role as a short-term support and psychological threshold for bulls [1]. As long as this level holds, the risk of a full breakdown remains limited, even as Bitcoin struggles to break above $123,000.
Approximately 73,000 BTC is currently held at the $117,000 cost basis, highlighting the strength of accumulation in this range. Buyers continue to absorb dips, stabilizing price action and signaling investor confidence in the support zone [1]. The structure contrasts with previous cycles driven by retail speculation and volatility, as regulatory progress—particularly around spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional custody frameworks—has drawn long-term capital into the market. This influx has contributed to a more measured price dynamic, reducing reactivity to short-term swings.
On-chain data underscores the resilience of the $117,000 level. The 8-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating between $115,724 and $122,077, currently hovering near $118,762. The price remains above major moving averages, including the 50 SMA ($118,185), 100 SMA ($113,521), and 200 SMA ($109,754), indicating continued trend strength [1]. Pullbacks toward the lower boundary at $115,700 have been met with strong demand, confirming this zone as key support. Meanwhile, resistance at $122,000 persists, capping bullish attempts and forming a defined range for near-term price action.
A breakout above $120,000 with a surge in volume could trigger a rally toward new all-time highs. Conversely, a breakdown below $115,700 may test the 100 SMA at $113,500, potentially reigniting selling pressure. The 100 SMA has become a focal point, currently under active test as buyers and sellers contest control [1]. Institutional accumulation in this range reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, particularly as macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical risks drive capital into risk assets.
The broader market context introduces uncertainty. Ethereum’s rising open interest and on-chain activity suggest capital is rotating into altcoins, a historical precursor to Bitcoin-led phases giving way to broader market expansions. If this trend accelerates, Bitcoin’s tight range may break—either through a catch-up rally or a temporary pause as funds shift elsewhere [1]. However, Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage and store-of-value narrative remain robust, underpinned by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
On-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio and exchange inflow/outflow data provide further insight. A declining MVRV ratio and reduced exchange inflows suggest reduced selling pressure, aligning with observed accumulation at key support levels. These indicators, combined with the cost basis distribution, highlight a market poised at a critical juncture. A successful defense of the 100 SMA could validate bullish momentum, while sustained weakness below $115,724 may signal deeper bearish pressure.
Bitcoin’s current phase reflects a balance of power between buyers and sellers, with the $117,000 zone serving as the fulcrum for its next directional move. Institutional demand, regulatory tailwinds, and technical structure all point to a potential breakout, though risks of capital rotation into altcoins remain. The interplay of these factors will determine whether Bitcoin reclaims its dominance or faces a temporary correction in the coming weeks.
Sources:
[1] [BrazilNex EXCLUSIVE] [https://www.instagram.com/p/DMor-z9N0GQ/].

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