Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Coiled-Spring Rally Pushes Past $125K as Whales Unload 147,000 BTC

Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high above $125,000 in October 2025, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic factors, institutional demand, and seasonal trends. The cryptocurrency, which closed at $110,723.60 on September 4, 2025, has seen sustained buying pressure from large holders and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that large-holder balances are rising at an annualized pace of 331,000 BTC, a stronger trend than in previous cycles, while ETFs added 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024. This demand aligns with historical patterns observed in late 2020, 2021, and 2024, when Bitcoin staged sharp price increases. Analysts note that a decisive move above the $116,000 threshold-identified as a key level by the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator-could transition the market into a bull phase, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $160,000–$200,000 by year-endBitcoin Price Prediction: Indicator Points to $200K by End of 2025^[1].

The surge coincides with the "Uptober" phenomenon, a term reflecting Bitcoin's historical outperformance in October. Over the past decade, the asset has gained in nine of ten Octobers, averaging a 21% rally. Traders and investors are attributing recent momentum to macroeconomic shifts, including speculation that a U.S. government shutdown could drive capital into safe-haven assets. For instance, $1.5 billion in ETF inflows were recorded in the week leading up to the price spike, as Bitcoin's market structure showed signs of a "coiled-spring" dynamic, with persistent sell-side skew giving way to sharp ralliesBitcoin Hits $120,000 for First Time Since Reaching …^[2]. Meanwhile, technical indicators such as the Bull Score Index (40–50) and RSI above 50 suggest buyers are gaining control, though caution remains as whales sold 147,000 BTC in September, signaling potential volatility.

Institutional and retail demand is increasingly shaping Bitcoin's price trajectory. U.S. institutional investors are accumulating through custody transfers, as evidenced by Coinbase Prime outflows, while Asian retail activity on Binance drives initial moves. The Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which tracks price gaps between U.S. and Asian exchanges, has historically predicted sustained rallies when positive. For example, the CPI turned decisively positive in Q4 2024 ahead of Bitcoin's surge from $70,000 to $100,000. Additionally, corporate treasuries, including Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), have added to demand, with UTXO Management projecting $120 billion in institutional flows before year-end. This aligns with broader adoption trends, including regulatory clarity in Europe and U.S. policy shifts under President Trump, which could further bolster institutional participation.

Despite bullish momentum, risks persist. On-chain data reveals a "third major profit-taking wave" as new whales-holders of 1,000+ BTC-realized $6–$8 billion in gains after Bitcoin crossed $120,000. Whales sold 147,000 BTC since August 21, accelerating downward pressure, while options markets show traders betting against a strong breakout. Critical support levels at $109,898 and $105,000 are under scrutiny, with a breakdown below the former potentially triggering larger declines. Conversely, a breakout above $115,000 could test $120,000, aligning with historical seasonal strength. Analysts from 10x Research caution that Bitcoin could swing $20,000 in either direction in early Q4, highlighting market uncertainty.

Looking ahead, forecasts vary widely. Coindesk projects Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end if demand metrics strengthen and momentum holdsBitcoin Price Prediction: Indicator Points to $200K by End of 2025^[1]. Forbes analysts suggest $150,000 is achievable if ETF inflows mirror gold's post-ETP performance and macro conditions remain favorable, though volatility and regulatory risks could delay the milestone. Binance's 2030 projection of $142,000 contrasts with more aggressive targets like Standard Chartered's $250,000 and Cathie Wood's $1.5 million by 2030. The market's trajectory will likely hinge on three factors: U.S. Federal Reserve policy, MiCA-licensed liquidity in Europe, and a second wave of corporate treasury allocations under Trump's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."