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Bitcoin’s market capitalization has grown to represent approximately 1.66% of the global money supply, according to River, a
financial services firm. This figure includes the combined market capitalization of major fiat currencies (M2), minor currencies, and hard money such as gold, but excludes silver, platinum, and other precious metals. As of this writing, Bitcoin’s market cap stands at roughly $2.29 trillion, down slightly from its peak of $2.4 trillion in August. The global money supply used for comparison totals around $138 trillion, combining $112.9 trillion in fiat M2 and $25.1 trillion in hard money [1].River notes that Bitcoin’s rise to a 1.66% share of global money marks a significant milestone for a digital asset that emerged in 2009. The firm highlights that Bitcoin achieved this share in just 16 years, a stark contrast to the centuries it took for gold and the dollar to establish similar positions in the global monetary landscape. The firm’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a legitimate, hard-money alternative to fiat currencies, especially as central banks continue to expand liquidity [2].
The recent surge in Bitcoin’s value coincided with comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. In his address, Powell indicated that the Fed is moving closer to a neutral interest rate and is considering further rate cuts. He stated that the current policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago, citing stable unemployment and labor market indicators as justification for a “careful” approach to future rate adjustments [1].
The market responded swiftly to Powell’s remarks, with Bitcoin surging over 2% in the immediate aftermath of the speech, briefly reaching $116,000. According to CME futures data, 75% of investors now anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut in September [2]. This correlation between monetary policy and Bitcoin’s price is not new—historically, periods of monetary expansion have tended to drive higher valuations for digital assets as capital flows into alternative stores of value [1].
However, the relationship between Bitcoin and the global money supply is not always straightforward. While many traders believe that monetary expansion directly fuels Bitcoin’s price growth, some analysts caution that the link may be more indirect. They note that Bitcoin’s price can also be driven by investor sentiment, adoption milestones, or market-specific catalysts, and that liquidity conditions set a broader environment rather than dictate Bitcoin’s movements with a one-to-one correlation [3].
The growing share of Bitcoin in the global money supply underscores a broader shift in how investors perceive and value digital assets. As central banks continue to expand the money supply and erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies, more investors are turning to hard-money alternatives like Bitcoin and gold. River’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset but rather a $2.29 trillion counterweight to traditional monetary systems. The question now is whether central banks will adapt to this rise or continue the very policies that are accelerating it [2].
Source: [1] Bitcoin's Slice of Global Money Hits 1.7% — Just as Powell ... (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoins-slice-of-global-money-hits-1-7-just-as-powell-blinks-on-rates) [2] BTC climbed to 1.7% of global money before Fed chair ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-1-7-global-money-fed-chair-signals-rate-cut) [3] Bitcoin and Global Money Supply: How Strong Is the ... (https://cryptodnes.bg/en/bitcoin-and-global-money-supply-how-strong-is-the-connection/)

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