Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin on-chain activity diverges from 2017-2021 cycles, ETF outflows spark correction debate

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity in mid-2025 has revealed a divergence from historical patterns observed during the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, raising questions about the sustainability of its recent rally. According to a CryptoQuant analysis, the Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator—a metric tracking the movement of Bitcoin between exchanges—has displayed “interesting behavior,” signaling a potential shift in market dynamics [1]. Unlike prior cycles, where IFP declines typically preceded large-scale sell-offs by whales, current data shows consolidation rather than a sharp drop, suggesting major holders are retaining positions instead of liquidating [2]. This departure from historical trends has sparked debate among analysts about whether it reflects stronger institutional confidence or delayed caution ahead of a correction.

Recent on-chain metrics underscore the complexity of the market. Short-term holders (STHs) have shown increased activity on exchanges like Binance, with active supply within 180 days hitting levels historically linked to retail-driven sell-offs [2]. Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $67.93 million in outflows on July 8, marking the second consecutive day of withdrawals and hinting at cautious sentiment among institutional investors [2]. However, whale behavior appears contradictory: over 9,600 BTC were withdrawn from Kraken in a single day—the largest such movement in months—indicating major players are reducing exchange liquidity, potentially absorbing retail selling pressure [2].

Price action has remained range-bound between $116,000 and $120,000 since mid-July, following a record high of $123,218. Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest fading bullish momentum, with RSI dropping to 62 from overbought levels and MACD lines showing indecisiveness among traders [2]. Analysts remain split on the implications. Coinpedia noted that a similar spike in supply activity occurred when Bitcoin hit $70,000 earlier in 2025, coinciding with a wave of profit-taking [1]. If current levels break below $116,000, the 50-day EMA at $110,948 could become a key support. Conversely, a breakout above $120,000 may retest the July high, though Bitcoinist.com cautions that ETF outflows and technical exhaustion could temper near-term gains [3].

The broader market context adds nuance to the analysis. While institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors have historically driven Bitcoin’s rallies, recent price action appears more influenced by on-chain dynamics and exchange flows. Critics argue the current surge lacks intrinsic fundamentals, but proponents highlight whale accumulation and reduced exchange liquidity as bullish signs [2]. The interplay between short-term profit-taking by retail investors and long-term holding by larger participants remains a key determinant for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin’s Supply Surge Signals New Selling Wave](https://en.coin-turk.com/bitcoins-supply-surge-signals-new-selling-wave/)

[2] [Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Consolidates Between $116,000 and $120,000](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-rejected-from-120-000-as-momentum-cools-mild-etf-outflows-continue-202507231136)

[3] [Bitcoin Investor Price Model Signals Healthy Growth](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-investor-price-model-signals-healthy-growth-btc-eyes-139k-level/)