Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Caught Between Macro Pessimism and On-Chain Resilience

Bitcoin Faces a Reality Check as Small Business Optimism Crashes

Bitcoin's price continues to grapple with bearish pressures as a $235 million leveraged short position from a prominent "whale" investor underscores waning confidence in the cryptocurrency. The trader, holding an $11 billion Bitcoin portfolio, opened the 10x leveraged bet on Monday, risking liquidation if prices rise above $112,368, according to blockchain analytics firm Hypurrscan Bitcoin Whale Bets $235M on Price Drop. This follows the whale's earlier $200 million profit from a September price plunge, highlighting persistent bearish sentiment amid concerns over U.S. government shutdowns and global economic uncertainty.

The move aligns with broader market jitters as Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, signaling caution among institutional investors. BlackRock's IBIT led withdrawals with $580.98 million in exits, while Fidelity's FBTC saw $438.3 million leave its funds, as Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Net Outflows Cross $1 Billion Amid $100,000 Price Retest reported. Despite these outflows, cumulative inflows for Bitcoin ETFs still stand at $59.97 billion, reflecting a mixed investor stance.

Macroeconomic headwinds have further compounded Bitcoin's struggles. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported a drop in small business optimism to its lowest level since April, with hiring and sales activity weakening. This decline in economic confidence—often a precursor to broader market weakness—has raised concerns that Bitcoin, a liquidity-sensitive asset, could face further downward pressure if the government shutdown persists, as Bitcoin Faces a Reality Check as Small Business Optimism Crashes reported.

Yet, not all signals are bearish. A $1.15 million inflow into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs on Monday marked a reversal from a week of heavy outflows, offering tentative hope for a stabilization, as Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Tests Key Resistance as Momentum Improves, ETF Inflows Return reported. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode noted early signs of buyer re-engagement as prices test the $100,000 support level, with spot trading volume surging to $14.1 billion. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments, such as China's accusation that the U.S. stole 127,000 Bitcoin in a "state-level hack," have injected volatility into the market. The U.S. Justice Department defended the seizure as lawful, but the dispute has frozen 0.65% of Bitcoin's total supply, potentially tightening liquidity, as China Accuses US of Stealing 127,000 Bitcoin Worth $13 Billion—Calls It a State Hack; BTC Price Prediction Turns Tense reported.

Analysts remain split on Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. While some predict a gradual rebound toward $150,000 by 2026, citing potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and renewed institutional interest, others warn of a deeper correction to $90,000 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, as Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Net Outflows Cross $1 Billion Amid $100,000 Price Retest reported. The technical outlook is similarly ambiguous: Bitcoin hovers near $105,000, consolidating within a range bound by key resistance at $107,500 and support at $102,000. A break above $107,500 could spur a short-term rally, while a drop below $102,000 risks testing the $99,000–$97,000 support cluster, as Bitcoin Faces a Reality Check as Small Business Optimism Crashes reported.

For now, the market remains in wait-and-see mode. The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown—expected as Congress votes on a funding bill this week—could act as a catalyst. A bipartisan deal would likely boost risk appetite, while prolonged political gridlock may deepen the correction. As one trader put it, "Bitcoin is caught between macro pessimism and on-chain resilience. The next few days will tell which force prevails."