Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Buy Signal Linked to Bond Market Stress: Analyst Outlook

The next potential buying signal for Bitcoin may stem from stress in the bond market, according to Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal. He highlights the ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) as a key indicator of credit market fear. Historically, spikes in OAS have coincided with local bottoms in Bitcoin’s price cycle, suggesting that increased bond market volatility could point to another accumulation phase for BTC [1].

Currently, the OAS remains relatively calm, indicating that the market has not yet fully priced in the next wave of stress. However, Wedson anticipates that if credit spreads begin to widen in the coming quarter—often a sign of tightening liquidity—Bitcoin could enter a favorable buying period before a potential rally in Q4 [1].

This analysis is supported by broader macroeconomic factors. The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with daily interest payments now exceeding $2.6 billion. A recent credit downgrade for the U.S. reflects growing concerns over its fiscal path. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.3%, up from 3.9% a year ago, signaling higher borrowing costs across the economy [1]. These conditions may increase pressure on traditional markets, with Bitcoin potentially benefiting as an alternative store of value.

Wedson predicts a “bear market” will occur at some point, but he also notes that a period of euphoria is likely before the downturn. He further forecasts that much of 2026 and beyond could be challenging for the U.S. economy, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin may serve as a hedge against traditional market instability [1].

On the institutional front, demand for Bitcoin remains strong. Strategy, a major buyer of crypto, recently purchased 430 BTC for approximately $51.4 million, bringing its total holdings to 629,376 BTC. Despite this, on-chain data suggests increasing selling pressure among large holders, or “whales.” The number of mega whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC has dropped to its lowest level in 2025, with a consistent negative trend since mid-July. The same pattern is observed in the 1,000–10,000 BTC range, indicating potential profit-taking after recent price highs [1].

Adding to market volatility, nearly 32,000 dormant BTC—worth approximately $3.78 billion—was moved in a single transfer. This was the largest movement of dormant BTC in over a year and could signal a shift in long-term capital flows [1].

Taken together, these signals suggest that while institutional buyers continue to accumulate Bitcoin, broader whale activity and the activation of dormant supply could contribute to short-term corrections, maintaining elevated levels of volatility [1].

The evolving relationship between Bitcoin and traditional financial indicators, particularly in bond markets, highlights the cryptocurrency’s increasing role as a barometer for macroeconomic sentiment. As analysts continue to monitor the ICE BofA OAS and other bond market stress indicators, they suggest that Bitcoin may once again act as both an amplifier and a leading signal for broader capital reallocations [1].

Sources:

[1] title: Next Bitcoin buy signal could come from bond market stress: Analyst (url: https://cointelegraph.com/news/next-bitcoin-buy-signal-could-come-from-bond-market-stress-analyst)