Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Bulls Face Key September Test Before Q4 Breakout Potential

Bitcoin bulls may face a challenging September ahead of any potential resurgence in the fourth quarter, according to analyst Josh Olszewicz. In an August 18 video, Olszewicz outlined a cautious near-term outlook, warning that softening momentum signals, mixed ETF flows, and seasonal headwinds could lead to a prolonged period of consolidation. He emphasized the need for patience, suggesting that the market is likely to remain rangebound or volatile for the next six weeks before conditions could improve [1].

Olszewicz highlighted key technical levels and triggers that could determine the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price movement. He identified $121,000–$122,000 as a critical threshold; a daily close above this level could signal a bullish reversal. Conversely, a close below $100,000 in October would raise concerns about the health of the current bull cycle. “If we get a close below the cloud in September, I’m a little less worried than if we get it in October,” he noted, underscoring the importance of timing in interpreting market signals [1].

He also pointed to the 20-week moving average at $104,000 as an essential support level. A break below this would trigger further caution, especially if it occurs late in the third quarter. Olszewicz emphasized that the market requires a sequence of technical triggers—such as a bearish Tenkan-Kinjun (TK) cross in the Ichimoku chart and a close within the cloud—to shift his bias from neutral to bearish. “It’s nuanced… if this, then that,” he explained, framing his approach as a decision tree rather than a definitive prediction [1].

Looking ahead, Olszewicz sees September as a high-risk period due to its historically weak performance in crypto markets. While there remains a bullish case for Q4, it is conditional on the market maintaining key levels and receiving favorable macroeconomic signals. He also pointed to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium as a potential macroeconomic catalyst, noting that a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could act as a headwind for risk assets [1].

The analyst also drew a distinction between short-term ETF inflows and the broader trend of continuous flows. While Bitcoin ETFs saw $550 million in weekly inflows—described as “pretty good for any ETF”—this figure pales in comparison to earlier peaks, suggesting that corporate buying has slowed. “Still a lot of sellers obviously if price hasn’t gone anywhere,” he observed, highlighting the mixed signals in the market [1].

For long-term investors, Olszewicz stressed the structural tailwinds provided by rising global money supply and debt, which favor scarce assets like Bitcoin. However, he urged investors not to overcommit in the near term, given the lack of clear directional momentum. “If you think there’s a 30–50% chance that we actually attempt a parabolic move past the midpoint of the power law… it’s probably just worth sitting tight as an investor,” he said [1].

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin traded at $115,069, hovering just below the critical $120,000 level that Olszewicz identified as a potential breakout trigger. Until a clear technical and flow confirmation emerges, the analyst’s baseline expectation remains a market in consolidation, with either “nothingness” or strategic pullbacks offering the best opportunities for opportunistic traders [1].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Bulls Must Survive Brutal September Before Q4 Hope, Analyst Predicts (https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-bulls-must-survive-brutal-september-before-q4/)