Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bullish and Bearish Battles: A $145K Target vs. $88K Risk

Bitcoin faces contrasting outlooks from analysts, with bearish and bullish narratives emerging amid recent price corrections. Following a peak above $124,500, Bitcoin has retreated to around $115,000, raising concerns about further declines. Technical analyses highlight a breakdown of a rising wedge pattern, a bearish reversal structure that could drive prices toward $88,000 if momentum continues to weaken. Analyst Captain Faibik noted that the breakdown below the wedge’s support trendline signals growing seller pressure and a potential test of key psychological levels such as $100,000 [1].

In contrast, analyst BitQuant remains bullish, asserting that Bitcoin will not fall below $100,000 during this cycle, regardless of macroeconomic conditions or geopolitical factors. BitQuant reiterated his projection of a $145,000 price target for the year, a figure consistent with his prior successful predictions of Bitcoin’s trajectory [3]. This sentiment is supported by on-chain data indicating strong accumulation patterns, particularly around the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which historically has acted as a support zone during Bitcoin’s recent bull run [1].

The market’s mixed signals are further complicated by on-chain activity showing increased selling pressure from large whale addresses. Data from Glassnode reveals a decline in mega-whale holdings over 10,000 BTC and a similarly negative trend among wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. These movements suggest profit-taking and heightened caution among institutional investors as the cryptocurrency nears key resistance levels [1].

Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors introduce additional uncertainty. A potential 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, as indicated by CME Fedwatch data, could offset some of the bearish momentum in the short term. This diverges from the 2021 scenario, where Bitcoin peaked just as the Fed began tapering its stimulus program. Analysts like Swissblock argue that a broader expansion of global money supply (M2) could support a $132,000 price target for Bitcoin, with some forecasting even higher levels such as $170,000 [1].

Market reactions to macroeconomic developments and geopolitical tensions have also dampened investor risk appetite. The recent softening of expectations for aggressive Fed easing and a lack of progress in resolving the Ukraine crisis have contributed to a broader sell-off in both Bitcoin and altcoins. Ethereum, for instance, fell to $4,281, while Solana and Cardano dropped by over 6% and 7%, respectively [2]. However, the launch of a bitcoin treasury company by Amdax highlights continued institutional confidence in the asset class, despite short-term volatility [2].

Despite the bearish technical indicators and whale activity, the possibility of a short-term rebound remains. If Bitcoin holds above its 50-day EMA, it could retest the upper trendline of the rising wedge at around $125,000 by September. Additionally, the market is closely watching for signs of a reversal, particularly in the form of increased spot demand or a shift in macroeconomic expectations. For now, Bitcoin remains in a critical phase, with traders and analysts closely monitoring price movements for further direction [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Price Rising Wedge Breakdown: How Low Can ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-rising-wedge-breakdown-how-low-can-bitcoin-go)

[2] Bitcoin price today: dips below $116k, Amdax plans ... (https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-price-today-drops-below-116k-as-macro-worries-weigh-4196671)

[3] Bitcoin won't go below $100K 'this cycle' as $145K target ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-wont-go-below-100k-this-cycle-145k-target-remains-analyst)