Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull Run Tests Gold's Safe-Haven Crown Amid Fed Uncertainty

Bitcoin surged past $116,000 on Monday, driven by optimism around U.S.-China trade talks and improving global risk sentiment, as traders cautiously positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting, according to a Yahoo Finance report. The move follows a strong weekend rally, with the cryptocurrency climbing from $104,800 to near $116,000, signaling renewed institutional inflows and long-term conviction in the asset class, the Yahoo piece added. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has climbed from $25 billion to nearly $30 billion, reflecting fresh leverage entering the market—a trend analysts describe as a "double-edged sword" that could amplify upside momentum above $112,000 but heighten liquidation risks below $110,000.

The broader crypto market mirrored Bitcoin's cautious optimism, though major tokens like Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) lagged, with ETH slipping 2.6% to $4,115, the Yahoo article noted. Analysts attribute this divergence to capital consolidation following recent volatility, as the total crypto market capitalization remains near $3.9 trillion, above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, noted that the current setup resembles earlier market dynamics this month, where renewed leverage chased modest strength but faced resistance near the $117,000–$120,000 range.

The Federal Reserve's Oct. 28–29 meeting looms as a pivotal event, with markets widely expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut to the 4.00%–4.25% range, the Yahoo Finance piece said. A dovish pivot, even as inflation remains slightly above target, could further bolster risk-on sentiment. "Powell is likely to emphasize a data-dependent approach while signaling a controlled liquidity expansion," Zhang said, adding that such a balance would stabilize Treasury demand and lift equities and crypto markets. The Fed's reliance on private indicators like ADP employment data, amid a U.S. government shutdown disrupting official releases, adds another layer of uncertainty for traders to monitor.

Bitcoin's recent performance also invites comparisons with gold, a traditional store of value. While gold's historical role as a safe-haven asset contrasts with Bitcoin's speculative nature, their correlation has fluctuated over time, as illustrated in a NewHedge chart. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin's price surged while gold stabilized, highlighting Bitcoin's speculative edge. However, the 2020 pandemic saw both assets dip simultaneously, reflecting shared responses to macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts note that gold's resilience in times of crisis underscores its role as a hedge, whereas Bitcoin's volatility is more tied to speculative trading and adoption trends.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio—a metric comparing the two assets' relative values—has tested 2017 highs but failed to break through, suggesting resistance at those levels, as shown in the NewHedge chart. This dynamic underscores gold's enduring appeal during macroeconomic turbulence, contrasting with Bitcoin's more dynamic, market-driven performance. As Bitcoin inches closer to its all-time high, the interplay between institutional leverage, Fed policy, and its evolving relationship with traditional assets will likely shape the next phase of its trajectory.