Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull Run Now Driven by Institutions, Not Halving Cycles

Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving-driven cycle appears to be losing relevance as macroeconomic conditions and institutional demand reshape the market. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, argues that accommodative monetary policies in major economies-particularly in the U.S. and Japan-will sustain the current bull run, rendering historical bear market patterns obsolete Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom^[1]. The Federal Reserve's projected rate cuts and Japan's potential Abenomics-driven stimulus suggest a continuation of loose monetary conditions, which Hayes posits will outpace any cyclical bear market pressures typically observed post-halving Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom^[1].

Institutional adoption has further disrupted Bitcoin's historical volatility patterns. Global exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporations acquired 944,330 BTC in 2025, surpassing the year's mining output by a factor of seven Bitcoin Magazine^[4]. This surge in demand, driven by spot ETF inflows and corporate treasuries, has created a structural supply deficit. As of September 2025, tracked entities held over 3.8 million BTC, with public companies like MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital Holdings leading the accumulation Bitcoin Magazine^[4].

The interplay between institutional buying and dwindling exchange reserves is raising concerns about a potential supply shock. Centralized exchange balances have fallen to a six-year low, with weekly withdrawals exceeding 15,000 BTC-equivalent to 10 days' worth of mining output BTCC^[5]. Analysts warn that as reserves deplete, Bitcoin's price could experience extreme volatility, mirroring the 300% surge following the 2020 halving BTCC^[5].

Despite these dynamics, the market remains cautious about timing the next correction. A Yahoo Finance analysis predicts the next crypto winter could begin between Q4 2026 and Q2 2027, contingent on macroeconomic shifts such as inflation reacceleration or regulatory shocks Mohammad Shahid, Yahoo Finance^[2]. However, current conditions-characterized by steady institutional inflows, regulatory clarity, and a lack of systemic leverage-suggest the bull market may extend beyond historical cycles BeInCrypto^[7].

Technical indicators also highlight a mixed picture. Bitcoin's price stabilization around $103,000–$109,000 reflects strong on-chain support, with liquidity clusters and positive funding rates indicating persistent bullish sentiment Cointelegraph^[8]. Yet, the asset faces critical resistance at $114,000; a weekly close above this level would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown could trigger a correction toward $103,700 .

The Trump administration's pro-crypto policies, including regulatory clarity and potential U.S. Bitcoin reserve initiatives, are cited as catalysts for long-term institutional adoption Matthew Snider, BitFinance^[3]. These measures are expected to reduce speculative retail-driven volatility and position Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan notes that the transition to institutional demand-now six times greater than new supply-has fundamentally altered Bitcoin's price dynamics BeInCrypto^[7].

In summary, Bitcoin's market is undergoing a structural shift driven by macroeconomic tailwinds, institutional adoption, and regulatory progress. While historical four-year cycles may no longer dictate price action, the current environment supports sustained growth through 2026. However, investors must remain vigilant for potential triggers-such as tightening monetary policy or liquidity shocks-that could precipitate a correction.