Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Bull Run: A Clock Ticks Toward Critical Crossroads

Bitcoin’s bull market is showing signs of entering a critical juncture, with analysts offering conflicting signals on whether the peak is near. While some data suggests a short-term recovery is under way, others warn that the market could be approaching a turning point within just two months. Amid rising speculation, key on-chain metrics and derivative market indicators are being closely monitored to determine the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.

Recent analysis from on-chain analyst Darkfost indicates a potential shift in Bitcoin’s market sentiment. The Bitcoin Futures Composite Sentiment Index, which evaluates trader behavior using metrics like net taker volume and open interest, has turned positive after five days of bearish readings. This reversal suggests renewed confidence in the derivatives market, where trading activity remains more significant than spot and ETF volumes. The index’s positive move aligns with similar behavior observed in early August, raising the possibility of a short-term price rebound. However, this remains contingent on sustained inflows and a continuation of bullish positioning in the derivatives market [1].

In contrast, some analysts remain cautious, pointing to metrics that indicate a cooling-off period in the market. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, a gauge of market momentum, has fallen from a bullish 70 to a neutral 50, signaling a potential slowdown in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, explained that the decline reflects a shift in trader sentiment and suggests a period of consolidation is likely. A continued drop in the index would imply further downside risk, underscoring the importance of risk management for investors [1].

Despite these warnings, some firms are still forecasting higher prices for Bitcoin in the coming months. Bernstein analysts, for instance, anticipate that Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $200,000 within the next six to 12 months. They attribute this optimism to a combination of favorable regulatory developments, including the U.S. government’s efforts to position the country as a global crypto hub. The firm also cited the recent surge in institutional adoption, with major corporations and public treasuries adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, as a significant catalyst for continued price growth [2].

However, this bullish outlook faces immediate challenges. A critical test for Bitcoin’s bull run will come on August 29, when $13.8 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire. Traders are closely watching how the market responds to this event, as the outcome could determine whether the recent correction marks the end of the bull phase or a temporary pause. At current price levels, bears hold a significant advantage, with put options accounting for a larger portion of open interest than calls. The pressure is expected to intensify as Bitcoin trades below $114,000, a key threshold that could determine the success of bullish strategies [4].

Looking beyond the short-term volatility, some on-chain analysts suggest that Bitcoin may still be following its traditional four-year halving cycle. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, noted that profit-taking among long-term holders and declining demand for spot ETFs are indicative of a market entering a later stage of the cycle. If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s next major peak could arrive as early as October, mirroring patterns seen in previous cycles. This view contrasts with others who argue that the growing influence of institutional investors and public treasuries is reshaping Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, potentially extending the bull phase into 2026 and beyond [5].

As the market navigates these conflicting signals, investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor key indicators for further clarity. The coming weeks and months will likely determine whether Bitcoin’s current bull run is nearing its peak or if it will continue to defy historical patterns.

Source:

[1] Bitcoinist - [https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-bullish-spark/](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-bullish-spark/)

[2] Yahoo Finance - [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-could-reach-200000-within-6-months-during-long-exhausting-crypto-bull-market-173358527.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-could-reach-200000-within-6-months-during-long-exhausting-crypto-bull-market-173358527.html)

[3] MarketWatch - [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoins-bull-run-could-defy-history-and-last-until-2027-bernstein-analyst-says-why-that-may-be-too-optimistic-b14df756](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoins-bull-run-could-defy-history-and-last-until-2027-bernstein-analyst-says-why-that-may-be-too-optimistic-b14df756)

[4] Cointelegraph - [https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-13-8b-options-expiry-puts-bulls-on-edge-ahead-of-key-test](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-13-8b-options-expiry-puts-bulls-on-edge-ahead-of-key-test)

[5] Cointelegraph - [https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-year-old-cycle-not-dead-crypto-analysts](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-year-old-cycle-not-dead-crypto-analysts)