Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull Market Maturity: On-Chain Metrics Point to $150K by 2025

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Monday, Oct 13, 2025 7:18 am ET1min read
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- Bitcoin's price exceeds $126,200 with 99.4% supply in profit, signaling mature bull market dynamics and strong institutional/retail demand.

- Short-term holders (STHs) face $133,000 peak pressure but could drive further gains if buying outpaces profit-taking.

- 3.45M BTC accumulation by STHs and $1.19B ETF inflows highlight growing institutional adoption amid fiat devaluation concerns.

- On-chain metrics show 1w–1m holders paying higher prices than 1m–3m holders, historically preceding major price rallies.

- Analysts project $150,000 by late 2025 if dips below $121,500 attract long-term buyers during consolidation phases.

Bitcoin's price has reasserted itself above critical on-chain thresholds, with analysts suggesting the potential for a $150,000 target by late 2025. After hitting a new all-time high of $126,200 on October 6, Bitcoin's on-chain metrics indicate widespread profitability among holders, with 99.4% of the supply currently in profit The Coin Republic[1]. This figure, a historic marker of mature bull market dynamics, underscores robust demand from both long-term and short-term holders (LTHs and STHs) The Coin Republic[1].

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price is projected to peak at $133,000, a level where STHs may face increased selling pressure as unrealized profits reach 10% The Coin Republic[1]. However, this threshold could also serve as a catalyst for further upward momentum if institutional and retail demand outpaces short-term profit-taking.

Data from Checkonchain highlights a significant accumulation of 3.45 million BTC by STHs during this bull cycle, a trend rivaling the 2016–2017 rally but at exponentially higher price levels The Coin Republic[1]. This resilience suggests growing confidence among retail investors, who have increased activity on platforms like Binance following Bitcoin's ATH The Coin Republic[1]. Retail-driven trading volume surged 21.7% in 24 hours, reaching $70.9 billion, reflecting heightened market participation The Coin Republic[1].

Institutional demand remains a key driver. Spot

Bitcoin
ETFs have seen sustained inflows, with $1.19 billion entering funds on the day BTC hit its record high . Analysts like Michael Saylor and Dan Tapiero argue that Bitcoin's role as a hedge against fiat devaluation-exemplified by Japan's three-decade low-interest environment-is accelerating institutional adoption . Saylor predicts a $150,000 price target by late 2025, citing structural shifts in capital flows away from traditional markets .

Glassnode's on-chain analysis reinforces bullish sentiment, noting a persistent premium in the cost basis of 1-week–1-month (1w–1m) holders over 1-month–3-month (1m–3m) holders . This dynamic signals strong short-term demand, with newer buyers paying higher prices than recent entrants. The wide gap between these cohorts historically precedes price rallies, suggesting Bitcoin's momentum could extend beyond $133,000 .

While short-term volatility is anticipated, experts view current consolidation as a precursor to a larger breakout. CryptoQuant data indicate that purchase volumes exceeding $25 billion often precede market pauses, which could allow for a more sustainable rally . Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe caution that dips below $121,500 might present entry points for long-term investors ahead of the $150,000 target .