Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull Case Hinges on $119.5K as Stochastic RSI Turns Bullish

Bitcoin is entering a potential new expansion phase as technical indicators suggest a shift in market momentum. The Stochastic RSI, a momentum oscillator, has turned bullish on the weekly chart, signaling a crossover from oversold levels-a pattern historically linked to sustained price recoveries. Analysts, including Kamran Asghar and Mister Crypto, highlight that this development aligns with cyclical patterns observed since early 2023, where Bitcoin's price structure has repeatedly followed a sequence of accumulation, shakeout, and expansion phases. Current data shows Bitcoin trading near $123,208, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.45 trillion and 24-hour trading volume of $59.85 billion.

The Stochastic RSI's bullish crossover is reinforced by Bitcoin's historical behavior during similar technical setups. Mister Crypto noted that the recent oversold reversal mirrors prior expansion phases, with green zones on the chart marking upward trends and red boxes indicating consolidation periods before renewed rallies. The oscillator's movement from oversold territory has historically preceded multi-week recoveries, as seen in previous cycles in September 2023, January 2024, and March 2025. This pattern suggests renewed investor participation and liquidity support, though traders are advised to monitor sustained momentum above key resistance levels, such as $119,000–$119,500, to confirm the bullish thesis.

Market structure analysis further supports the case for an expansion. Bitcoin's price action since early 2023 has displayed a consistent pattern of upward legs followed by short consolidations, with each rally preceded by an oversold reading on the oscillator. The current cycle, now in its sixth interval, has seen gains of +66% since the last consolidation phase. Analysts caution that while the technical setup is favorable, confirmation of a breakout above $119,500 would open the path to $123,288, a level where liquidity was previously absorbed. Conversely, failure to maintain momentum could result in a retest of $111,900, a potential entry zone for new buyers.

Fundamental metrics also suggest the bull market remains intact. On-chain data indicates that short-term holders (STHs) are still active, with their cost basis bands not yet reaching overheated levels. The Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI), which tracks network growth and liquidity, remains strong, signaling that structural fundamentals are supportive despite a temporary pause in price momentum. Additionally, CoinGlass' Bull Market Peak Dashboard reports zero of 30 top signals triggered, with key indicators like Pi Cycle Top and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) showing no signs of a blow-off top.

Macro factors could further influence Bitcoin's trajectory. The Federal Reserve's anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2025 may impact liquidity and risk appetite, particularly if inflationary concerns persist. However, institutional buying remains robust, with businesses purchasing Bitcoin at four times the mining rate, according to River Financial. This accumulation, combined with the technical and macro backdrop, suggests the market is poised for a continuation of the bullish trend, provided key support levels hold.

Traders are advised to prioritize risk management, using defined stop-loss levels and position sizing aligned with volatility. While the Stochastic RSI and price structure provide a compelling case for an expansion phase, confirmation through sustained volume and price action above critical thresholds is essential. Analysts emphasize that the current setup mirrors prior cycles, but caution that external macroeconomic shifts could alter the trajectory.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Could Enter New Expansion Phase as Stochastic RSI Turns Bullish Near $123K (https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-could-enter-new-expansion-phase-as-stochastic-rsi-turns-bullish-near-123k/)

[2] Bitcoin Stochastic RSI Crosses Up, History Says Rally Is Next (https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-stochastic-rsi-crosses-up-history-says-rally-is-next/)

[3] 'This isn't a top': Here's why Bitcoin analysts say BTC will break (https://cointelegraph.com/news/this-isnt-a-top-why-bitcoin-analysts-btc-will-break-123k)

[4] Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Trend Reversal Sparks Bullish Targets Toward $123K (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-trend-reversal-sparks-bullish-targets-toward-123k)

[5] Here's why Bitcoin analysts say BTC will break $123K | CoinGlass (https://www.coinglass.com/news/519685)

[6] Bitcoin Nears Oversold Signal as Indicators Point to Rebound (https://coinedition.com/btc-price-analysis-oversold-signal-points-to-september-rebound/)

[7] Bitcoin Drops to $79,000 - Oversold Bounce Coming (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/btc-price-drops-oversold-conditions-bounce/)

[8] BTCUSD Technical Analysis for Bitcoin - Barchart.com (https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/%5EBTCUSD/technical-analysis)

[9] Bitcoin StochRSI Chart (Historical Daily Values) (https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/charts/stochrsi/)