Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull Case Gains Weight as Gold, ETFs, and Seasonality Align

Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains a subject of intense scrutiny as analysts debate the likelihood of a surge to $160,000 by Christmas 2025. Network economist Timothy Peterson, whose research is widely followed in the cryptocurrency community, has highlighted that Bitcoin historically delivers gains in the final four months of the year. His analysis, shared on X, noted that 70% of the time, Bitcoin sees a rise during this period, with an average gain of 44% over this timeframe. If these historical patterns hold, this would place BTC/USD near $160,000 by December 2025 [1]. Peterson also pointed out that years like 2018, 2022, and 2020 deviated from the norm due to unique market conditions, but 2025 appears more aligned with the average trend, supporting a “positive yet less volatile” outlook [1].

The current price dip, which has seen Bitcoin trading near $110,000 after a peak of $124,533 on August 14, is being viewed by some as a “frontrunning” of the typical September weakness. Traders like Donny have compared this move to the 2017 bull market, suggesting that the scale of the correction is different but the eventual outcome mirrors historical trends [1]. Additionally, Bitcoin’s performance has shown signs of aligning with gold’s price behavior, a relationship that has strengthened in recent years [1]. This correlation could further reinforce long-term bullish sentiment, particularly if macroeconomic conditions favor safe-haven assets.

Recent on-chain and technical data, however, indicate a more complex picture. Bitcoin’s monthly adjusted transfer volume has declined, with speculative activity waning as the Taker Buy-Sell Ratio reached –0.945, its lowest since November 2021. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, signaling persistent bearish pressure. Moreover, major Bitcoin holders, or “whales,” have been unloading large amounts of BTC, with one whale alone liquidating 3,968 BTC ($437 million) and reallocating into Ethereum [2]. These factors suggest that, at least in the short term, Bitcoin faces challenges in maintaining its price above key support levels such as $110,000.

In contrast, the broader infrastructure of Bitcoin continues to strengthen. The network’s hashrate has climbed to 944 EH/s, while mining difficulty hit an all-time high of 129.7 trillion, reflecting increased security and institutional investment in the mining sector [2]. HIVE Digital Technologies, for instance, has expanded its mining capacity to 16 EH/s, with plans to reach 25 EH/s by year-end. This expansion underscores growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, despite short-term volatility.

Institutional support for Bitcoin remains a key driver. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has launched an $835 million Bitcoin buying program, with ambitions to own 210,000 BTC by 2027, representing 1% of the total supply. The firm also plans to monetize its holdings by selling covered calls, a strategy that could stabilize its returns and attract more institutional interest in Bitcoin [2]. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs are beginning to show signs of recovery after weeks of outflows. On August 25, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $219 million in inflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC among the top performers [4]. This resurgence in institutional investment may help cushion Bitcoin against short-term volatility and position it for a stronger Q4 rally.

While the short-term technical outlook for Bitcoin remains mixed, the medium-term prospects are more promising. The combination of strong institutional buying, improving macroeconomic conditions, and favorable seasonality trends suggests that Bitcoin could see a significant rebound by the end of 2025. However, any movement toward $160,000 will require continued inflows into ETFs and broader capital commitment. Analysts estimate that to reach $150,000 or higher, Bitcoin needs roughly $173 billion in additional inflows before year-end [3]. Given the current pace of ETF adoption and institutional appetite, this target remains within reach—if market conditions continue to favor risk-on assets.

Source:

[1] title1 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-can-still-hit-160k-by-christmas-average-q4-comeback)

[2] title2 (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-usd-struggles-at-111k-usd-as-110k-usd-tested)

[3] title3 (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/26/bitcoin-etfs-need-to-pull-in-nearly-usd1b-this-week-to-avoid-second-biggest-monthly-outflow-on-record)

[4] title4 (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/d5cd2-bitcoin-price-prediction-219m-floods-into-bitcoin-etfs-institutions-quietly-preparing-for-a-run-to-1-million)