Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull Case Gains Traction as Liquidity Shifts and On-Chain Signals Align

The global liquidity environment is shifting, sparking renewed interest in Bitcoin as a potential beneficiary of macroeconomic dynamics. Recent on-chain metrics and macroeconomic indicators suggest that a drop in liquidity could act as a catalyst for a bullish phase in Bitcoin's price trajectory. Analysts are increasingly pointing to the interplay between tightening liquidity conditions and Bitcoin's historical behavior, with several key data points reinforcing the narrative.

The RVT Ratio 30DMA (Realized Value to Transaction Volume) has approached a critical threshold of 22, signaling a growing proportion of dormant capital on the Bitcoin network. This metric, analyzed by CryptoQuant, historically aligns with accumulation phases, where long-term holders increase their positions amid market uncertainty. Axel Adler, a CryptoQuant analyst, noted that the current RVT Ratio level suggests reduced transaction activity and a shift toward strategic accumulation, a precursor to potential price rallies Bitcoin RVT Ratio Approaches Key Threshold – Accumulation …^[1]. Such patterns were observed during Bitcoin's 2017 and 2021 bull runs, where similar on-chain behaviors preceded significant upward movements.

Global liquidity trends further support this thesis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2025, with expectations of two more cuts before year-end, has reduced borrowing costs and improved liquidity for risk assets. Lower rates typically incentivize capital to flow into alternative investments like Bitcoin, which is increasingly viewed as a proxy for global liquidity conditions. According to Qiao Wang, a crypto analyst, the current pullback in Bitcoin's price reflects temporary market exhaustion rather than a prolonged bearish cycle, with liquidity-driven rebounds likely in the coming months U.S. Treasury Action to Blame for Bitcoin’s Break From Global M2, …^[4].

Historical correlations between Bitcoin's price and global M2 money supply growth also reinforce the bullish outlook. As of July 2025, global M2 supply surpassed $112 trillion, reversing post-2022 contractions and creating a favorable environment for asset inflation. Bernstein, a Wall Street firm, highlighted that Bitcoin's price has historically followed M2 trends with an 8–12-week lag, suggesting a potential $200,000 price target by Q4 if liquidity expansion continues . However, this relationship temporarily faltered in late July due to U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) refinancing activities, which drained $500 billion from the system. Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, argued that this liquidity drain is now abating, with the TGA nearing capacity and Bitcoin poised to realign with M2-driven trends .

On-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-Score and Value Days Destroyed (VDD) provide additional confirmation. The MVRV Z-Score, which measures market value relative to realized value, rebounded from a low of 1.43 in late 2025-a level historically associated with local bottoms in bull cycles. Meanwhile, the VDD Multiple indicates that long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin at lower prices, mirroring patterns from 2020–2021 . These indicators suggest that the current correction is cyclical and constructive, with institutional and macro-savvy investors positioning for a resumption of the bull trend.

Geopolitical risks and regulatory uncertainties remain headwinds. Tensions in regions like China Hong Kong and the Middle East could shift capital toward safe-haven assets like gold or the U.S. dollar. Additionally, the SEC and CFTC's evolving regulatory frameworks for crypto assets introduce potential volatility. However, institutional adoption of Bitcoin is deepening, with companies like Hyperliquid and Pump.fun generating significant revenue through decentralized applications, signaling maturation in the ecosystem U.S. Treasury Action to Blame for Bitcoin’s Break From Global M2, …^[4].

Historical patterns also point to a strong Q4 2025 rally. Bitcoin has historically delivered robust returns in the fourth quarter, with average gains of up to 85% following a green September. Analysts like Ted Pillows predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end, leveraging its historical correlation with gold and the current liquidity backdrop . This aligns with broader market optimism, as U.S. tech stocks and AI-driven economic growth bolster risk appetite.

In conclusion, the confluence of tightening global liquidity, on-chain accumulation signals, and historical price patterns positions Bitcoin for a potential bullish phase. While macroeconomic and geopolitical risks persist, the alignment of liquidity-driven factors with institutional confidence suggests that the real top of this cycle may still lie ahead.