Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull-Bear War: Whales Accumulate as 60% Downturn Looms

Bitcoin Faces 60% Bear Market Probability, But $200,000 Target Lingers

Bitcoin's market outlook has grown increasingly uncertain as investment advisor Andy Edstrom, a prominent voice in the crypto space, warned of a 60% probability that the current bull cycle has ended. In a detailed analysis posted on X, Edstrom outlined a probabilistic framework suggesting that Bitcoin could bottom near $60,000 in a bear scenario, while maintaining a 40% chance of reaching $200,000. Despite the bearish lean, he emphasized that his risk-reward calculations still support holding Bitcoin, particularly given whale accumulation trends that contradict traditional bear market signals.

The digital asset traded at $86,109 as of mid-November, having declined 10.65% over the prior week. Edstrom's bear case hinges on historical patterns, where previous bear markets were triggered by events such as exchange hacks, geopolitical tensions, and leverage unwinds. Conversely, his bull case-though less likely-relies on positive catalysts like government Bitcoin purchases or favorable regulatory developments. The expected value calculation derived from these probabilities suggests a $116,000 target, representing a 38% upside from current levels according to analysis.

Whale activity has emerged as a key point of divergence in market analysis. Data from Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more had surged to 1,436 entities by mid-November, surpassing accumulation rates seen during the 2013 and 2016 bull markets. Macro strategist Gert van Lagen interpreted this as evidence of "unprecedented demand from large holders," arguing that the absence of distribution phases-a typical prelude to bear markets-suggests a potential blow-off top rather than a reversal. This dynamic creates a "conflicting signals" environment, where price action and on-chain metrics point in different directions.

The market's volatility has also spurred new financial products. Leverage Shares announced plans to launch 3x long and short leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on the SIX Exchange, offering European investors amplified exposure to crypto price swings. The move comes amid a 21% drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum year-to-date, raising concerns about the risks of leveraged products in a highly volatile market. Meanwhile, BexBack Crypto Exchange introduced a "Market-Crash Support Package," including 100x leverage and a 100% deposit bonus, to help traders capitalize on rapid price movements.

Edstrom's probabilistic approach underscores the inherent uncertainty in crypto markets. "Nothing in financial markets carries absolute certainty," he noted, advising investors to adjust position sizes based on risk tolerance. His long-term projection envisions an $8 trillion Bitcoin market cap by 2029, translating to a $400,000 price per coin. However, he cautioned that leveraged positions remain vulnerable to sudden corrections, particularly as major moving averages converge near the $100,000 level-a potential inflection point for traders according to his analysis.

The conflicting signals between technical indicators and whale behavior highlight the complexity of the current environment. While Edstrom's bear case dominates, van Lagen's analysis suggests that large holders are positioning for a sharp upward move. This divergence leaves market participants in a wait-and-see mode, with many monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000-a critical support level according to market analysis.