Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Breaks Free from Four-Year Cycle as Global Policies and Institutions Drive New Era

Bitcoin's traditional four-year bull-bear cycle, historically tied to halving events and monetary tightening, is no longer a reliable predictor of market behavior, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom. In a recent essay titled "Long Live the King!", Hayes argues that accommodative global monetary policies and institutional adoption are rendering the cycle obsolete. "The four-year anniversary of this cycle is upon us, but traders expecting a bear market peak are mistaken," Hayes wrote, noting that fiat liquidity expansion-driven by U.S. and Chinese monetary easing-will sustain the bull run.

The four-year cycle has historically seen Bitcoin's price surge ahead of halving events, followed by bear markets 16–18 months later. The last halving occurred in April 2024, leading to speculation about a potential peak in 2025. However, Hayes contends that the current bull market is diverging from historical patterns. He attributes this to sustained liquidity injections, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve and China's monetary authorities. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with further reductions expected, while China's focus on combating deflation supports continued BTC gains.

Hayes emphasizes that past bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were triggered by monetary tightening, not halving events. "This time is different," he argues, pointing to U.S. President Trump's pro-growth policies, including plans to lower housing costs and reduce debt burdens, as factors that will keep liquidity flowing. Meanwhile, Japan's potential shift toward Abenomics-style stimulus and China's reluctance to drain liquidity further reinforce the bullish outlook.

The shift is also driven by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan notes that the Trump administration's executive order prioritizing digital assets and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs are attracting long-term institutional capital. K33 Research adds that Bitcoin's price is now influenced more by structural forces-such as institutional demand and macroeconomic trends-than retail speculation.

While some analysts, like CRYPTO₿IRB, argue that the four-year cycle remains intact due to its mathematical nature, others, including Sygnum Bank's Martin Burgherr, acknowledge its diminishing role. "The four-year framework is becoming one of several inputs rather than the market's central script," Burgherr stated, highlighting the growing influence of macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments.

The U.S. and China's competing digital currency strategies further underscore the evolving landscape. China's promotion of the digital yuan (e-CNY) and the U.S.'s GENIUS Act, which regulates stablecoins, reflect a broader geopolitical battle for financial dominance. However, Hayes asserts that both nations' monetary policies will continue to support Bitcoin's price, as neither will actively hinder liquidity expansion.

In conclusion, Hayes and other experts predict that Bitcoin's current bull market will extend beyond 2026, driven by sustained liquidity, institutional adoption, and accommodative monetary policies. "Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future," Hayes concluded, signaling a structural shift away from the four-year cycle.

[1] CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/09/bitcoin-crash-off-the-table-as-four-year-cycle-is-dead-arthur-hayes)

[2] BitFinance (https://bitfinance.substack.com/p/is-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-about-to)

[4] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-experts-analysts-split-on-4-year-market-cycles)

[5] Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-4-cycle-090609783.html)

[6] The Diplomat (https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/who-will-rule-crypto-the-china-us-battle-for-global-financial-leadership/)