Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Bounces Back—But Will Institutional Trust Hold?

Bitcoin’s price has surged past $110,000 in early September, signaling a potential reversal after a volatile August that saw the cryptocurrency dip to as low as $107,274, its lowest level since early July. The recovery followed a 6% monthly loss and a broader market correction. Institutional and corporate activity has remained a stabilizing force, with 690,000 BTC absorbed by institutions in 2025 alone—six times the newly mined supply. Metaplanet and MicroStrategy have significantly expanded their BTC holdings, reinforcing the growing trend of corporate accumulation that acts as a de facto supply sink [1].

On-chain data reflects a mixed but generally bullish outlook. The Delta Cap metric, which historically identifies market bottoms, is currently at $739.4 billion, while Coinbase’s premium gap remains at +11.6%, indicating strong U.S. institutional demand [1]. Short-term holder metrics suggest capitulation pressure, yet the MVRV Z-score remains near 2—far from the “danger zone” of 7–9—indicating limited unrealized profits and potential for further upside [1]. However, a bearish flag is present in the MVRV death cross, with 30-day averages crossing below 365-day levels, a pattern previously observed before the 2021–2022 collapse [1].

Technical indicators show Bitcoin is currently trading within a descending parallel channel, with key resistance at $111,350–$113,500 and immediate support at $107,335. A breakdown below $103,500 would expose the $100,000 psychological threshold and $90,000 liquidity pools. While the weekly RSI hovers just above 50, the MACD has crossed bearishly, signaling momentum loss. Nevertheless, bullish divergence is visible on the 12-hour chart, suggesting a potential move to $115,700 or even $118,000 if BTC clears $111,350 [1].

Whale activity and market rotation have also played a role in Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. A major whale recently liquidated 2,000 BTC (~$215 million) to acquire 48,942 ETH, as part of a $4.07 billion broader shift toward Ethereum [1]. Whale wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC have not yet sold aggressively, offering a supportive signal for BTC stability. However, retail sentiment remains overly optimistic, with Santiment analysts warning that true bottoms are formed during fear rather than optimism [1].

Macroeconomic factors and ETF flows further complicate the outlook. September is historically weak for Bitcoin and equities, often referred to as “Red September.” Spot Bitcoin ETFs have faced outflows, with a $126.7 million net outflow in the final week of August, reducing total assets under management to $139.95 billion [2]. However, inflows have since resumed, with 3,018 BTC added on September 1, suggesting institutions are buying into weakness [2]. BlackRock’s IBIT fund remains the largest Bitcoin ETF, with $80.98 billion in AUM, while Ethereum ETFs have outperformed with $1.4 billion in weekly inflows [4].

Looking ahead, the U.S. jobs report is a key event, with expectations of 73,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate. If the data comes in weaker than expected, it could reinforce forecasts for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the September 16–17 meeting, with futures markets assigning nearly 90% odds to such a move [1]. Analysts and investors remain divided between bullish projections and concerns over technical and seasonal headwinds. The market remains in a critical phase, with Bitcoin’s ability to hold key support levels likely to determine whether it can break out to new highs or face a renewed downward correction.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD at $107K Support, $113K (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-usd-set-for-107k-usd-floor-or-breakout-to-118k-usd) [2] Bitcoin reclaim $110k, eyes a new weekly high (https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/02/bitcoin-reclaim-110k-eyes-a-new-weekly-high-check-forecast/) [3] Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $126.7M in First Weekly Outflows Since June (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-bleed-126-7m-125500539.html) [4] Bitcoin ETF Inflows Rebound – BTC-USD at ... - Trading News (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-etf-inflows-rebound-btc-usd-at-108k-usd)