Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bearish Breakdowns Clash with Bullish On-Chain Resilience as October Looms

Bitcoin's price has tested the $108,000 support level amid conflicting signals from technical indicators, on-chain data, and analyst forecasts. As of late September 2025, Bitcoin trades near $109,600, having declined 13% from its August 14 all-time high of $124,128. Despite the pullback, market activity has intensified, with spot trading volume rising 30% to $30.6 billion and futures volume surging 44.55% to $58.42 billion. Open interest increased to $80.41 billion, suggesting new positions are being opened rather than closed, indicating heightened trader conviction Bitcoin Tests $108K Support as Conflicting Signals Emerge…^[1].

Technical analysis reveals mixed signals. Bitcoin has breached key support levels, including the Ichimoku cloud, the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, and horizontal support zones around $111,965 and $109,364. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average shows a bearish crossover, and the weekly MACD histogram has dropped below zero, signaling a shift to bearish momentum. These breakdowns suggest potential for further declines toward the 200-day SMA at $101,366 or the psychological $100,000 level Bitcoin Tests $108K Support as Conflicting Signals Emerge…^[1]. However, on-chain metrics present a contrasting bullish narrative. The Delta Cap indicator, currently at $108,900, has historically served as a cycle floor, and Bitcoin trading above this level suggests underlying strength. The Coinbase Premium Gap stands at +11.6, reflecting strong institutional demand from U.S. investors, a pattern that has preceded upward moves in prior cycles Bitcoin Tests $108K Support as Conflicting Signals Emerge…^[1].

Whale activity and institutional positioning add complexity to the outlook. On-chain data from 10x Research indicates whales sold 147,000 BTC in late August and September, accelerating downward pressure. Meanwhile, major institutional buyers, including Michael Saylor's firm, have slowed their activity, raising concerns about reduced capital inflows . Analysts warn that a breakdown below $108,000 could trigger further declines, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $60,000–$70,000, with cascading effects on altcoins BTC Price Risks Sharp Drop As Analysts Cite $108K And $118K…^[2]. Conversely, a rebound above $118,000 could reignite bullish momentum, according to MVRV momentum data, which suggests Bitcoin needs to clear this resistance to reestablish a bullish trajectory BTC Price Risks Sharp Drop As Analysts Cite $108K And $118K…^[2].

Seasonal trends further complicate the near-term outlook. September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, averaging -3.49% returns since 2013 Bitcoin Tests $108K Support as Conflicting Signals Emerge…^[1]. However, October has shown stronger tendencies, with gains recorded in 10 of the last 12 years, including surges of up to 60% in 2013 and 48% in 2017 . Analysts like Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano highlight seasonal strength in the post-halving year, noting that Bitcoin often bounces from September lows to set up Q4 highs. Institutional adoption and corporate treasury allocations are also cited as potential catalysts for renewed optimism BTC Price Risks Sharp Drop As Analysts Cite $108K And $118K…^[2].

The market remains at a crossroads, with key levels determining the trajectory. If Bitcoin holds above $108,000, it could stabilize investor sentiment and pave the way for a push toward $115,000, a level that may test $120,000 if supported . A breakdown below $108,000, however, risks triggering a deeper correction. Analysts caution that the coming weeks will be critical, as the interplay between technical support, whale behavior, and seasonal patterns could determine whether October becomes a "Uptober" or a "Rektober" .

10x Research predicts Bitcoin could swing $20,000 in either direction during early Q4, underscoring the market's volatility. While bullish indicators like the Delta Cap and Coinbase Premium Gap suggest resilience, bearish signals from technical breakdowns and whale selling highlight the fragility of the current price action. Investors are advised to monitor key thresholds, including $108,000 for support and $118,000 for resistance, as well as broader macroeconomic developments that could influence institutional sentiment .