Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bear Threshold Fall Driven by ETF Exodus and Surging Short Bets

Bitcoin Falls Below Key Bear-Market Threshold, Sparking Reassessment of Bullish Outlook

Bitcoin has dropped below the 0.75 Cost Basis Quantile, a level historically associated with bear market conditions, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. This threshold, which marks the price at which 75% of Bitcoin's supply was last acquired, has been a critical indicator for market structure in previous cycles. Analysts note that reclaiming and maintaining above this level has been pivotal for restoring bullish momentum. The decline signals renewed bearish pressure, with long-term holders showing muted selling activity as early stabilization hints emerge.

The move follows a broader selloff in crypto markets, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing record outflows. On November 13, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $866.7 million in net redemptions, the second-largest single-day withdrawal since their January 2024 launch. BlackRock's IBIT led the exodus with $257 million in outflows, while Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust lost $318 million. The selling pressure coincided with Bitcoin's drop below $100,000, triggering cascading liquidations of long futures positions and accelerating the decline.

Institutional investors are also recalibrating their strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Harvard University's endowment committed $443 million to BlackRock's IBIT, marking a rare foray into Bitcoin for the academic giant. The move underscores growing institutional confidence in crypto despite short-term volatility, though it contrasts with the broader market's bearish technical signals. Bitcoin recently printed a "death cross", a bearish pattern where short-term momentum indicators fall below long-term trends, raising concerns about prolonged consolidation.

The bearish sentiment is further amplified by shifting monetary policy expectations. Markets now price in a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December meeting, down from near-certainty a month ago. Smart money traders, tracked by blockchain analytics firm Nansen, have added $5.7 million in short positions over 24 hours, signaling downside bias. Meanwhile, liquidity in Bitcoin futures markets remains tight, with forced selling intensifying as institutional risk limits are triggered.

Despite the near-term turbulence, some market participants see potential for a reversal. BitMine Immersion's Tom Lee highlighted that two major market makers are navigating financial deficits but emphasized that strategic buying opportunities may emerge as liquidity stabilizes. Additionally, Bitcoin miners and crypto infrastructure firms have seen gains, with BitMine purchasing 200,000 ETH worth $840 million to capitalize on the dip.

The market's next test comes as Bitcoin approaches $94,890, a level not seen since early May 2025. Analysts caution that prolonged weakness below the 0.75 quantile could deepen the bearish narrative, though historical patterns suggest that such thresholds often precede eventual reversals. For now, the focus remains on macroeconomic clarity and institutional positioning, with ETF redemptions and rate-cut odds shaping the immediate outlook.