Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Bear Market Deepens as Stablecoin Outflows and Weak On-Chain Metrics Weigh on Recovery Chances

Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming years has been the focus of recent analyses from notable figures in the financial markets, including Ki Young Ju and Peter Brandt. The two analysts have released their medium- and long-term forecasts, which highlight both the challenges and opportunities facing the crypto asset. Market participants are paying close attention to these insights as they seek to navigate the current bearish trend and prepare for potential recovery phases.

The short-term environment for Bitcoin remains difficult, with declining stablecoin reserves on major exchanges indicating a lack of retail participation. This withdrawal of capital has been interpreted as a sign of investor caution and limited appetite for immediate exposure to crypto markets. As a result, Bitcoin faces headwinds in its ability to stage a near-term recovery.

Analysts are now turning their attention to the broader medium- to long-term outlook for Bitcoin. A combination of on-chain data, macroeconomic factors, and institutional activity will be key in shaping the asset's trajectory. The insights from Ki Young Ju and Peter Brandt provide a framework for understanding where the market could be headed.

Why the Standoff Happened

The current standoff in Bitcoin's price is rooted in a combination of declining retail participation and a broader risk-off sentiment. Stablecoin outflows have surged in recent months, signaling that investors are withdrawing capital from exchanges rather than holding stablecoins for potential opportunities. This shift has been interpreted as a sign of reduced confidence and liquidity in the market.

Ki Young Ju has noted that on-chain inflows into Bitcoin have weakened after a period of consistent growth. This decline is particularly evident in the realized cap, a metric that tracks the total value of Bitcoin based on the last price each unit was traded for.

The weakening of this indicator suggests that the asset is facing structural challenges that must be overcome before a sustained recovery can occur.

How Markets Reacted

Bitcoin ETFs and other investment vehicles have shown mixed performance in recent months. While Ethereum ETFs have seen a resurgence of inflows, Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience outflows. This divergence highlights the differing levels of institutional interest between the two leading cryptocurrencies. XRP, another major asset, has also seen steady ETF inflows but remains under pressure in the derivatives market.

The broader market reaction has been characterized by a lack of direction. Traders are grappling with uncertainty, and the absence of strong retail buying power has made it difficult for Bitcoin to break through key resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other technical indicators point to increasing bearish momentum, reinforcing the idea that the market is in a consolidation phase.

What Analysts Are Watching

Peter Brandt, a veteran trader with over four decades of experience, remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He has analyzed historical data and noted that Bitcoin has experienced five major bull cycles since 1975. Each of these cycles was followed by a decline of at least 80%, suggesting that the current correction is part of a larger, recurring pattern.

Brandt has projected that the next bull market peak could occur in September 2029. His thesis is built on the idea that later cycles tend to last longer and deliver smaller percentage gains compared to earlier ones. While he has not provided a specific timeline for when the next bull market will begin, he has emphasized that the current cycle is not yet complete.

Ki Young Ju, on the other hand, has focused on the medium-term outlook. He has highlighted the importance of on-chain data in understanding Bitcoin's trajectory. The PnL Index Signal, which tracks profit and loss based on the cost basis of all wallets, has moved sideways since early 2025 and is trending downward toward year-end. This development signals that losses are increasing among holders, which could delay a recovery in sentiment.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the long-term optimism expressed by both analysts, several risks remain. Regulatory uncertainty, increasing hash rate competition, and execution challenges in new technological ventures all pose potential threats to Bitcoin's growth. Additionally, the volatility inherent in crypto markets means that any recovery could be interrupted by sudden shifts in sentiment or macroeconomic factors.

The broader financial ecosystem also plays a role in shaping Bitcoin's future. Institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions will all influence how the market reacts to potential opportunities. Investors must remain vigilant and prepared for a range of possible outcomes.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, the outlook from Ki Young Ju and Peter Brandt underscores the need for a long-term perspective. While the immediate market conditions are challenging, the medium- to long-term trajectory of Bitcoin appears to be more favorable. This outlook suggests that investors should focus on diversifying their portfolios and managing risk in the short term.

Prediction platforms, such as those provided by Binance, CoinMarketCap, and Polymarket, are increasingly being used to navigate these uncertainties. These tools combine technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis to provide insights into potential price movements. However, investors should approach these predictions with caution, as no model can guarantee accuracy.

As the market continues to evolve, investors will need to stay informed about the latest developments and adjust their strategies accordingly. The insights from Ki Young Ju and Peter Brandt offer a valuable framework for understanding Bitcoin's potential trajectory, but they should be considered as part of a broader investment strategy.