Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Battles October Headwinds, Eyes November's Seasonal Tailwind

Bitcoin Faces Volatile October, Eyes November for Recovery

Bitcoin's price dropped to $107,000 in early October 2025, marking its first red October in seven years and triggering widespread market jitters, according to TradingView. The decline followed a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a sharp sell-off driven by U.S.-China trade tensions, which saw $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated, as CryptoNews reported. However, the cryptocurrency clawed back to $114,600 by mid-month, buoyed by institutional inflows and a tentative trade agreement between Washington and Beijing, Bitget reported.

The U.S.-China deal, announced on October 26, suspended 100% tariffs and rare earth export curbs, pushing Bitcoin to $113,500 and lifting the crypto market cap to $3.92 trillion, Bitget reported. Analysts attribute the rebound to easing geopolitical risks and a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, which has historically supported risk-on sentiment, according to Investing.com. Yet, the road to recovery remains fraught. Bitcoin currently trades in a broadening pattern, with critical resistance at $126,000–$128,000 and support at $105,400–$103,800, TradingView noted. A break above $116,000 could target $120,000–$122,000, while a breakdown below $109,000 risks exposing the $105,000 CME futures gap, Investing.com also warned.

Institutional demand has been a stabilizing force. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.5 billion in inflows this month, with institutional holdings now accounting for 12% of total supply, a record high, Investing.com reported. Coinbase's Q3 profit surged to $1.05 billion, reflecting rising trading volumes in digital assets, TradingView reported. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics show declining exchange balances and rising accumulation, suggesting a mid-cycle correction rather than a bearish reversal, BeInCrypto reported.

Retail and institutional investors remain divided. Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and Robert Kiyosaki have both projected significant gains for Bitcoin in 2025, with Kiyosaki suggesting a potential high of $200,000, BeInCrypto noted. However, Polymarket data indicates a 52% probability of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 by month-end, reflecting unease over macroeconomic uncertainties, CryptoNews reported.

Historical trends offer a cautiously optimistic outlook for November. Bitcoin has averaged 40.5% gains in November since 2011, with standout performances in 2013 (453.9%), 2017 (59%), and 2020 (42.9%), Coinotag found. The median November return stands at 10.82%, with 8 out of 12 Novembers from 2013–2024 posting gains, TradingView's November preview noted. Analysts link this seasonal strength to the "Santa rally" and post-halving cycles, though 2025's setup is unique. After October's volatility, Bitcoin now trades between $102,000 and $126,000, with 70% of Novembers since 2011 showing positive returns, Coinotag found.

The path forward hinges on geopolitical stability and Fed policy. A finalized U.S.-China trade deal could reinforce risk appetite, while renewed tensions or a failed rate cut might reignite selling pressure, Bitget warned. For now, bulls are betting on November's historical resilience, but bearish risks persist as liquidity tightens and profit-taking intensifies.