Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Battle for Independence: Can It Break From Equities and Rise?

Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked renewed debate among analysts about its potential to diverge from traditional equities and initiate a new bullish cycle. While the S&P 500 has historically maintained a strong correlation with Bitcoin, especially during macroeconomic stress, the potential for a divergence could signal a turning point in BTC’s trajectory. In the past five years, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have often moved in tandem, with a 30-day correlation exceeding 70% during volatile periods. However, historical patterns show that Bitcoin can decouple from equities under certain conditions—most notably during its 2019 bull run, where its surge to $12,000 occurred while equities moved more modestly [4]. Analysts suggest that such a scenario could reoccur, particularly if Bitcoin’s intrinsic fundamentals, such as its fixed supply and adoption dynamics, gain more influence over price movements [4].

The possibility of a bear market in October has been highlighted by Joao Wedson, CEO of crypto analytics firm Alphractal, who cited the so-called “Repetition Fractal Cycle” to argue that Bitcoin is approaching a bear market phase. Wedson notes that the fractal cycles have historically predicted bear market starts, and if valid in 2025, a significant drop could follow. He identified a potential support retest near $100,000 before a further decline to $50,000 in late 2026. This analysis is grounded in the fractal cycle model, which has been used to predict past bear market phases [1]. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this cycle remains relevant in the face of heightened institutional interest and speculative ETF activity.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s performance amid rising global bond yields presents another layer of complexity. Analysts have noted that Bitcoin historically benefits from rising yields when driven by inflation or debt concerns, as seen in 2013 and 2021. However, when yields rise due to central bank tightening—such as in 2018—Bitcoin tends to struggle [5]. With U.S. government debt climbing to over $37.3 trillion and long-term Treasury yields reaching multi-decade highs, the market is beginning to price in the risk of inflation and fiscal instability. This environment has led to a shift in investor behavior, with gold and other hard assets rising alongside Bitcoin. Mark Moss, a Bitcoin strategist at Satsuma Technology, noted that Bitcoin is well-positioned to outperform in such conditions, acting as a high-beta hedge against monetary and fiscal excess [5].

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s recent rally appears to have stalled, with long-term holders reducing their positions and ETF inflows slowing. A key warning sign for bulls is the recent surge in the MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility. The index rose from 77 to 89 in just three days, the sharpest rise since early April, and further increases could signal a tightening of liquidity across global markets [6]. A flight to safety in bond markets often leads to a sell-off in riskier assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could face renewed downward pressure as investors seek to preserve capital amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s long-term performance over the past decade remains impressive when compared to traditional asset classes. According to macro investor Krueger, Bitcoin’s real return—adjusted for 7% inflation and 20% capital gains tax—stood at 46% from 2014–2024, vastly outperforming the S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, real estate, and 10-year Treasuries [3]. This outperformance, albeit with significantly higher volatility, has led to growing interest in Bitcoin as a macroeconomic asset. Professional trader Adam Bakay recommended allocating a portion of investment portfolios to Bitcoin, especially given the success of ETFs and increasing institutional interest [3]. However, he emphasized the importance of balancing Bitcoin’s exposure with safer assets such as gold or Treasury bonds to mitigate its sharp price swings.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin bear market due in October with $50K bottom target (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bear-market-in-october-with-50k-bottom-target-analysis)

[2] Trump family-backed American Bitcoin is a different sort of ... (https://www.axios.com/2025/09/04/trump-abtc-american-bitcoin)

[3] The Real Reason Behind Bitcoin Outperforming The S&P500 ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-reason-behind-bitcoin-outperforming-141541439.html)

[4] Bitcoin vs US Equities Correlation Chart (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/us-equities-correlation)

[5] What will Bitcoin price do amid a 'collapse of global G7 ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/what-happens-to-bitcoin-price-amid-collapse-global-g7-bond-markets)

[6] Bitcoin (BTC) Price News: Watch Out For a Spike in Bond ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/05/bitcoin-bulls-should-keep-an-eye-out-for-spike-in-key-bond-market-index)