Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Battle at $104K: A Crucible for Buyers

Bitcoin is currently trading near $112,000, consolidating within the $104,000–$116,000 range. On-chain data reveals that investors have been accumulating in the $108,000–$116,000 range, filling an "air gap" in the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). This pattern suggests a "buy-the-dip" response, indicating constructive activity for the longer term, though it does not eliminate the risk of further contraction in the short to mid-term [1].

Historically, the $104,000–$114,000 range has acted as a consolidation corridor following bullish cycles, often leading to a sideways market until a decisive trend emerges. A breakdown below $104,100 could signal a replay of previous exhaustion phases after all-time highs, potentially pushing the price toward $93,000–$95,000. Conversely, a recovery above $114,300 could indicate renewed demand and a shift in trend [1].

Short-term holders of Bitcoin have seen their profitability drop sharply to 42% amid recent sell-offs before rebounding to 60%. While this marks a neutral stance, the market remains fragile. A sustained recovery above $114,000–$116,000, where over 75% of short-term holders would return to profit, would likely attract new demand and drive prices higher. However, without such a rebound, the market remains susceptible to further volatility [1].

Off-chain indicators suggest cooling sentiment. Futures funding rates, which measure speculative demand, remain neutral at approximately $366,000 per hour, falling within a historically neutral range for the current market cycle. Should this rate fall further below $300,000 per hour, it would indicate diminishing demand and a bearish outlook. ETF inflows, which previously fueled price surges in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, have also slowed sharply. Bitcoin ETF flows are primarily directional, while Ethereum flows reflect a mix of spot demand and cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies [1].

Regional activity is also shaping Bitcoin's price dynamics. A new pattern has emerged where Asian markets initiate price movements, while U.S. demand determines their longevity. The Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) and the Korea Premium Index (KPI) highlight this interplay. A positive CPI typically signals U.S. institutional buying, while Binance activity reflects Asian retail and trading sentiment. When both metrics align positively, global demand synchronizes, often leading to significant price rallies [2]. However, when U.S. investors take profits while Asian traders continue to accumulate, the market experiences volatility and sharp price swings [2].

As Bitcoin consolidates, analysts are closely watching for signs of renewed momentum or a deeper correction. While some view the $104,000 level as a key threshold, others remain cautiously optimistic, noting that September has historically been a month of consolidation before stronger fourth-quarter performance [3]. The outcome will likely depend on whether ETF inflows and institutional demand continue to support the market or if further profit-taking accelerates the current correction.

Source:

[1] Accumulating in the Gap (https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-35-2025/)

[2] BTC rally bets on US institutional demand and Asia's retail ... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1095888-20250904)

[3] Bitcoin Price News: BTC Slips Below $110K (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/04/bitcoin-slips-below-usd110k-as-analysts-weigh-risk-of-deeper-pullback)