Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Balances Bullish Momentum and Correction Risks as Profitability Hits Critical Levels

Bitcoin's current market dynamics highlight a mix of bullish momentum and emerging risks as key metrics suggest both elevated profitability and potential short-term corrections. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a critical on-chain indicator, has risen to 2.4 in October 2025, surpassing its one-year moving average of 1.9. This crossover, first analyzed by on-chain experts Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018, typically signals renewed holder confidence but also warns of distribution risk when profitability reaches historic extremes. Concurrently, 99.3% of Bitcoin's supply is in profit, a level observed only three times historically, each followed by 3–10% short-term pullbacks99.3% of Bitcoin supply in profit could trigger short-term dip^[3]. Analyst Ted Pillows noted this pattern, suggesting a temporary correction could precede a resumption of the upward trend.

The profit supply spike aligns with broader market sentiment, as reflected in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which stands at 63-indicating optimism but not euphoria. This measured optimism supports the continuation of Bitcoin's bull cycle, with institutions and retail investors alike showing renewed interest. Record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $3.2 billion in 2025, underscore institutional adoption, with Citigroup projecting BTC could reach $133,000 by year-end99.3% of Bitcoin supply in profit could trigger short-term dip^[3]. However, the combination of high profitability and moderate sentiment creates a delicate balance: while extreme greed (above 80) has historically preceded major tops, the current level leaves room for further gains.

Technical analysis reinforces this duality. Bitcoin's price consolidation around $121,900, with $100K–$110K as the next key resistance zone, reflects a tug-of-war between accumulation and profit-taking. On-chain data from platforms like CryptoQuant reveals that nearly all holders are in profit, signaling strong confidence but also raising overheating concerns. The MVRV-Z Score, a statistical variant of the MVRV ratio, highlights deviations from realized value, currently pointing to stretched but not extreme conditionsBitcoin MVRV Ratio Chart | Newhedge^[2]. Analysts caution that the $100K–$110K band, a historical ceiling since 2024, will be a critical test for buyers.

Institutional activity further complicates the outlook. Bitcoin ETFs, now holding over $163.5 billion in assets, have become a cornerstone of demand, with JPMorgan strategists noting BTC's volatility-adjusted undervaluation relative to gold99.3% of Bitcoin supply in profit could trigger short-term dip^[3]. Meanwhile, large-scale BTC inflows onto exchanges-reaching $3.2 billion-suggest potential selling pressure, a bearish signal amid otherwise bullish fundamentals. The interplay between these factors creates a nuanced picture: while macroeconomic conditions, including ETF momentum and dovish central bank policies, favor continued growth, liquidity constraints and profit-taking risks could trigger a healthy reset.

Long-term holders (LTHs), who control a significant portion of Bitcoin's supply, remain a stabilizing force. The realized price, which tracks the average historical cost of BTC holders, has risen in tandem with market price, indicating a shift from speculative trading to deeper conviction. However, short-term holders (STHs) face heightened distribution risks as the MVRV ratio approaches levels associated with previous market peaks. Analysts emphasize that while corrections are likely, they are not bearish signals but rather necessary pauses in an extended bull cycle.

The path forward hinges on institutional flows, macroeconomic developments, and on-chain behavior. If Bitcoin clears the $100K–$110K resistance with sustained volume and accumulation metrics, it could target $130K–$135K. Conversely, a breakdown below $108K may trigger a test of $100K support. For investors, the key is balancing participation in the uptrend with disciplined risk management, as historical patterns suggest corrections often pave the way for higher highs.