Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's ATH Push Faces Whales, Sell Walls, and Cautious Institutions

Bitcoin's recent surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) has ignited optimism among bulls, but key on-chain metrics and market dynamics suggest a complex landscape ahead. A recent survey of 2,549 crypto participants revealed that 86.7% expect Bitcoin to surpass its current ATH of $111,980 by year-end 2025, with 40.1% predicting a range of $125,000–$150,000 and 20.3% anticipating $151,000–$175,000 [2]. Analysts, however, caution that technical indicators and holder behavior may temper this bullish outlook.

Long-term holder (LTH) activity has spiked to a four-year high, signaling increased profit-taking among whales. This behavior, historically linked to market skepticism, raises concerns about sustainability [1]. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) remain in a "non-selling" zone, with a current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of 27%. At the current growth rate of 0.818 percentage points per day, this metric could breach 40% by June 11, 2025-a threshold historically associated with intensified selling pressure [1]. If this trend materializes, Bitcoin could see a temporary price surge to $162,000, though analyst Axel Adler Jr. warns that geopolitical shocks, such as political declarations, could disrupt this trajectory [1].

Structural challenges loom as Bitcoin approaches critical price levels. A major "sell wall" between $112,000 and $114,000, identified by trader Killa, could hinder upward momentum [1]. Additionally, the STH MVRV Bollinger Band has not yet entered the "overheating" red zone, currently targeting $113,499. Analysts note that a break above this level could trigger profit-taking, potentially capping gains. Conversely, a failure to hold above $106,265 support might lead to a retest of $105,000 or $102,734 [1].

Macro trends further complicate the outlook. Jeff Dorman, CIO of ARCA, argues that the traditional 4-year crypto cycle is waning, with markets evolving into a pattern more akin to traditional equities. He envisions prolonged bull markets punctuated by brief bearish corrections, rather than cyclical boom-and-bust phases [3]. Dorman outlines two scenarios: an 80% likelihood of a post-2024 dip resolving as a "temporary setback," similar to the 2020 pandemic crash, and a 20% chance of a U.S. recession delaying broader gains [3].

The interplay between retail and institutional sentiment underscores the market's fragility. While retail investors remain optimistic, institutions are cautious, creating a misalignment that could prolong volatility. The 70-day average timeline to reach a new ATH, based on historical data, suggests a potential record could be set by late July 2025 [3]. However, this projection hinges on sustained retail buying and minimal macroeconomic headwinds.

In summary, Bitcoin's ascent to an ATH is supported by robust retail sentiment and favorable short-term holder metrics, yet structural sell walls and whale activity pose risks. The market's ability to navigate these dynamics will determine whether the current rally translates into a sustained bull run or a short-lived peak. Investors are advised to monitor key levels and institutional sentiment shifts as the year progresses.

Source: [1] When Will Bitcoin Hit a New ATH? Timing & Key Signals (https://investx.fr/en/crypto-news/next-bitcoin-ath-timing-signals/) [2] Survey: 4 in 5 Expect Another Bitcoin All-Time High This Year (https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-ath-predictions-2025) [3] Bitcoin Cycle Change: Jeff Dorman on BTC Price, ATH ... (https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-ath-70-days-dorman-cycle-shift-warning-2025/)