Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Ascent as Central Bank "Digital Gold" by 2030?

Deutsche Bank analysts have projected that Bitcoin could emerge as a central bank reserve asset by 2030, positioning it alongside gold as a strategic component of global financial security. The research, authored by economists Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon, argues that Bitcoin's maturing characteristics-reduced volatility, low correlation with traditional assets, and scarcity-mirror those of gold, making it increasingly viable for inclusion in central bank portfolios. This shift is driven by growing institutional adoption, including corporate "Bitcoin treasuries," and central bank efforts to diversify reserves amid de-dollarization trends and geopolitical uncertainties .

The analysts highlight that Bitcoin's price volatility has declined significantly in recent years, with 30-day volatility dropping to historic lows as prices surpassed $123,500 in August 2025. This trend, combined with Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins, aligns it more closely with gold's properties as a store of value. Deutsche Bank notes that over 463,685 BTC has been accumulated by corporations through September 2025, nearly tripling the year's mining output of 164,250 BTC, signaling robust institutional demand. The bank further emphasizes that Bitcoin's low correlation with equities (12% since 2020) and its negative correlation with government bonds during specific periods underscore its diversification potential .

Gold, traditionally a cornerstone of central bank reserves, has also seen renewed demand. Global central banks added over 36,000 tons of gold to reserves by 2025, driven by inflationary pressures and a desire to hedge against U.S. dollar devaluation. The dollar's share in global reserves fell from 60% in 2000 to 41% in 2025, prompting a surge in gold and Bitcoin ETF inflows. Deutsche Bank analysts draw parallels between gold's historical adoption and Bitcoin's trajectory, noting that both assets serve as hedges against fiat currency risks and geopolitical instability .

Despite these arguments, challenges remain. Bitcoin's lack of physical backing and regulatory uncertainty continue to raise concerns. JPMorgan analysts, for instance, propose that stablecoins could bolster dollar demand through decentralized finance, potentially complicating Bitcoin's path to reserve status. However, Deutsche Bank maintains that Bitcoin and gold will likely coexist in central bank portfolios, with the former offering complementary diversification benefits. The bank's analysis suggests that by 2030, Bitcoin could constitute a small but strategic allocation, akin to gold's role in the 20th century .

Market dynamics further support this outlook. Bitcoin's price briefly exceeded $125,000 in October 2025, while gold reached $3,983.80 per ounce. Emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and Asia, are exploring strategic Bitcoin reserves, with Brazil and Russia among nations evaluating its integration. Institutional infrastructure, including custody solutions and regulatory frameworks, is evolving to accommodate digital assets, reducing barriers to adoption. Deutsche Bank warns, however, that Bitcoin's volatility and liquidity constraints still pose risks, necessitating cautious, incremental allocations .

The U.S. Treasury's establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 and corporate investments by firms like MicroStrategy highlight Bitcoin's growing legitimacy. These developments, coupled with central banks' interest in de-dollarization strategies, suggest a gradual but inevitable shift in reserve asset composition. Deutsche Bank's projection underscores a broader redefinition of monetary systems, where digital assets complement traditional reserves to enhance resilience against inflation and geopolitical shocks .

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