Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Approaching $120,000 as U.S.-EU Trade Deal Fuels 11.3% July Rally

Bitcoin’s potential opportunities have drawn significant attention from traders, with market dynamics and expert analyses shaping strategic considerations. The cryptocurrency is currently trading near record highs, with prices hovering around $119,500 as of July 2025, amid mixed forecasts for its near-term trajectory [1]. The decision of whether to enter the market at current levels or wait for a correction remains a focal point for investors, with diverging views on optimal entry points and risk management strategies.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, highlights a critical technical level at $111,673, where Bitcoin has transitioned a former resistance into potential support. He argues that a pullback to this level could offer a favorable risk-reward ratio of 1:2 or better for positioning, a metric many investors prioritize when assessing trades at key thresholds [1]. However, alternative scenarios suggest Bitcoin may bypass corrections entirely, surging above $120,000 without retracement. Thielen emphasizes the importance of maintaining tight stop-loss orders in either case, underscoring the need for disciplined risk management amid heightened volatility [1].

Recent macroeconomic developments have further fueled market optimism. The U.S.-EU trade agreement, which postponed tariffs on Chinese goods and excluded semiconductors and pharmaceuticals from restrictions, has acted as a catalyst for risk assets. This deal, described as the “biggest trade deal ever” by officials, coincided with a record opening for the S&P 500 and bolstered Bitcoin’s price action, pushing it closer to $120,000 [1]. Analysts attribute this momentum to liquidity tailwinds generated by the agreement and a 4.5% annual increase in the U.S. M2 money supply, which has created a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin’s ascent [1].

Despite these bullish signals, on-chain data reveals a balanced distribution of long and short positions, suggesting indecision among traders. Crypto Tony, a prominent trader, notes that holding above $117,000 could pave the way for all-time highs, while Rekt Capital identifies a bull flag pattern with $119,200 as a near-term support zone [1]. However, liquidation metrics from CoinGlass indicate that a decisive move may require additional catalysts, such as further policy clarity or shifts in macroeconomic sentiment [1].

The Federal Reserve’s policy stance remains a pivotal factor. With the July FOMC meeting expected to maintain current interest rates, traders are closely monitoring for signals about future cuts. While President Donald Trump has urged lower rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a hawkish tone, deferring potential reductions to September. Analysts from Mosaic Asset caution that inflation fears, compounded by recent CPI readings and supply chain pressures linked to tariffs, continue to limit aggressive monetary easing [1].

Bitcoin’s July performance, a 11.3% monthly gain, outpaces its 7.85% average return over the past 12 years [1]. However, historical trends suggest August may present challenges for the asset, which has traditionally delivered weaker returns. Stablecoin liquidity metrics, tracked via the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), also indicate a temporary saturation point, with further price momentum likely contingent on new stablecoin inflows [1].

Institutional participation and macroeconomic clarity could tip the balance. Michael Saylor’s public commitment to expanding Bitcoin holdings reflects growing institutional confidence, while spot Bitcoin ETFs may broaden accessibility for investors. Nevertheless, analysts caution against overreliance on speculative forecasts, such as Techi.com’s $200,000 price target for 2025, which hinges on unresolved liquidity conditions [3].

The cryptocurrency’s trajectory remains a complex interplay of technical indicators, trade policy developments, and Fed policy ambiguity. While near-term optimism is supported by institutional activity and favorable macroeconomic conditions, traders must navigate potential headwinds from liquidity constraints and inflationary pressures. Strategic positioning, coupled with disciplined risk management, will be critical in capitalizing on Bitcoin’s evolving opportunities.

Sources:

[1] [Cointelegraph] [https://cointelegraph.com/news/biggest-trade-deal-ever-5-things-bitcoin-this-week]

[3] [Techi.com] [https://www.techi.com/bitcoin-price-forecast-2025-200k-liquidity]