Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Analysts Clash Over Bull Cycle Peak Timing and 30% Retracement Risk

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Sunday, Aug 17, 2025 2:15 am ET1min read
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Aime RobotAime Summary

- Bitcoin analysts debate peak timing, with Peter Brandt warning a 30% chance the bull cycle has already topped at $500,000, risking a $60,000–$70,000 retracement by 2026.

- Alternative models suggest a 37-month cycle extending to late 2025, contrasting with historical patterns and creating uncertainty over market trajectory.

- The 2028 halving delay shifts focus to macroeconomic factors, prompting traders to adjust hedging strategies amid divergent forecasts.

- Market participants face complex planning challenges as conflicting timelines complicate risk management and adoption trend assessments.

The ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s market cycle has sparked significant attention among traders and analysts, with conflicting forecasts shaping investment strategies and market positioning. Prominent market expert Peter Brandt recently suggested there is a 30% probability that the current bull market cycle has already reached its peak, potentially triggering a retracement to between $60,000 and $70,000 by November 2026, before a further push toward $500,000 [1][2]. This view contrasts with an alternative model proposing the cycle, which began after the November 2022 bottom, could extend for 37 months, pointing toward a top in late December 2025 [3]. The disparity underscores broader uncertainty about the timing and trajectory of Bitcoin’s next major price movement.

Brandt’s projection is rooted in historical patterns and a technical analysis of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior. He notes that while the 30% probability of a peak is notable, it is not definitive. This aligns with the broader observation that the current bull cycle may be extending beyond historical norms, pushing the peak into late 2025 rather than earlier [5]. The discussion has intensified as the next

Bitcoin
halving event is not expected until 2028, leaving a longer period for market dynamics—rather than structural Bitcoin-driven factors—to influence price action [6].

The debate has practical implications for market participants, with some traders increasing hedging strategies and adjusting timeframes to accommodate the possibility of a longer or earlier peak. These differing forecasts also complicate financial planning within the cryptocurrency sector, as managers balance macroeconomic risks with speculative demand and evolving adoption trends.

As the market continues to navigate these uncertainties, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin is in the final stage of a bullish phase or still has room to grow before a potential correction. Until then, the price is expected to remain within a range defined by these two major forecasts.

[1] Bitcoinist.com, “Bitcoin Cycle Peak Alert: Expert Says BTC Might Be Near Its Ceiling,” August 11, 2025, https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-peak-alert-expert-says-btc-might-be-near-its-ceiling/

[2] AInvest, “Bitcoin News Today: Peter Brandt Warns 30% Chance,” July 25, 2025, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-peter-brandt-warns-30-chance-bitcoin-cycle-peak-passed-triggers-retracement-risk-2508/

[3] Facebook, “Manuel - Veteran market analyst Peter Brandt believes...,” https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=746654684914409&set=a.130****63246274&type=3

[5] CryptoDnes.bg, “Bitcoin Cycle Debate: 30% Top Probability vs Lengthening Cycle to Late 2025,” August 13, 2025, https://cryptodnes.bg/en/tag/bitcoin/

[6] AOL.com, “The Next Bitcoin Halving Won’t Happen Until 2028. Here’s Why,” July 28, 2025, https://www.aol.com/next-bitcoin-halving-wont-happen-181600943.html