Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Market Splits as Seasonal Shift Uncertain

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Sunday, Oct 5, 2025 5:09 pm ET2min read
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- Altcoin market cap nears $1.63T, approaching 2021 highs as Bitcoin dominance drops to 58–60% in August 2025.

- Key altcoins like DOGE (+5%), AVAX (+11%), and ETH ($4,788) lead gains amid ETF-driven liquidity and DeFi/AI narratives.

- Mixed indicators show ASI at 73 (Bitcoin Season) vs. 76–76 (altcoin rotation), with forecasts predicting ASI 75–80 by Q3 2025.

- Risks persist: volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and liquidity traps in small-cap tokens challenge sustained altcoin momentum.

The altcoin market is showing mixed signals as indicators suggest a partial shift in capital allocation away from

Bitcoin
, though a full-blown altcoin season remains unconfirmed. According to the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index (ASI), which measures whether 75% of the top 100 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, the index currently stands at 73 as of late 2025, indicating Bitcoin SeasonAltcoin Season Index: Is it Altseason right now?[2]. However, other metrics, including the Blockchain Center's index at 76 and CoinGlass' 76, suggest a stronger rotation into altcoins, with both reaching their highest levels since DecemberAltseason Declared As Crypto Indicators Hit 2025 Highs[3]. CoinMarketCap's index, at 67, remains lower but still reflects elevated altcoin performance compared to historical averagesAltseason Declared As Crypto Indicators Hit 2025 Highs[3].

The total altcoin market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins, has surged to $1.63 trillion, nearing 2021 all-time highsAltseason Declared As Crypto Indicators Hit 2025 Highs[3]. This marks a 10% increase from November 2024's peak of $1.64 trillion and reflects a broader trend of capital re-entry into altcoins. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), a metric tracking Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap, has declined from ~65% in mid-2025 to 58–60% by mid-August 2025Altcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4], signaling a gradual shift in investor sentiment. Analysts note that a decline in BTC.D to between 50% and 60% historically precedes a full altcoin seasonAltcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4].

Key altcoins are exhibiting robust performance.

Dogecoin
(DOGE) rose over 5% to $0.25, while
Avalanche
(AVAX) surged 11% to $29, its highest since January 2025Altseason Declared As Crypto Indicators Hit 2025 Highs[3]. Hyperliquid (HYPE),
Stellar
(XLM), and
Toncoin
(TON) also gained more than 3% in a single day. Large-cap altcoins like
Ethereum
(ETH) and
Solana
(SOL) have posted double-digit gains in recent months, with Ethereum's price nearing $4,788 and Solana's surpassing $200Altcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4]. These movements align with early Phase 3 dynamics, where Ethereum and large-cap alts lead capital rotationAltcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4].

Institutional and macroeconomic factors are amplifying altcoin momentum. The launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has injected liquidity into the market, enabling investors to seek higher returns in altcoinsAltcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4]. Additionally, narratives around Layer-2 solutions, decentralized finance (DeFi), and AI-themed projects are driving speculative interest. For example, Aster (ASTER), a decentralized perpetual exchange, has seen its token price rise to $1.92, bolstered by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao's endorsement and $225 billion in 7-day DEX volumeAltcoins to Hit All-Time Highs October 2025: ASTER, MNT, APEX[5]. Similarly, Mantle (MNT) and APEX tokens are gaining traction due to their utility in decentralized trading and buyback programsAltcoins to Hit All-Time Highs October 2025: ASTER, MNT, APEX[5].

Despite these developments, risks persist. Altcoins remain highly volatile, with sharp drawdowns common after peaks. Regulatory uncertainties and liquidity traps in smaller-cap tokens further complicate the landscapeAltcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4]. Analysts caution that while the ASI and BTC.D trends suggest a nascent altcoin season, a full-scale rally-marked by

meme
coin frenzies and broader retail participation-requires sustained macroeconomic stability and institutional inflowsAltcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4]. Current forecasts project the ASI could reach 75–80 by late Q3 2025, confirming a full altcoin seasonAltcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4].

The altcoin market's trajectory hinges on a delicate balance between structural growth and speculative fervor. While Ethereum and large-cap alts are consolidating gains, smaller projects and niche sectors like liquid staking and AI-driven tokens are attracting capital. Investors are advised to monitor key indicators, including the ASI, BTC.D, and futures volume, while adopting disciplined risk management strategies to navigate the volatile environmentAltcoin Season Index 2025 Explained: Are We in One Now?[4].