Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin 97-Day Risk-Off Streak Second-Longest in 3 Years Drives Liquidity Tightening and Price Range Compression

Bitcoin’s prolonged risk-off sentiment has intensified as the Risk-Off Signal, a key on-chain and price structure metric developed by Bitcoin Vector in collaboration with Glassnode and Swissblock, extends to 97 consecutive days—the second-longest streak in three years. This duration follows only a 107-day period in November 2024, which preceded notable market corrections [1]. The signal, designed to detect capital flows away from risk assets before major drawdowns, highlights a sustained shift toward caution among market participants. Bitcoin Vector notes that maintaining a defensive stance since 2023 could have yielded strong returns, underscoring the metric’s utility in anticipating market turns [2].

The extended risk-off phase has coincided with tighter liquidity across the cryptocurrency market, weakening altcoin rotations and signaling broader behavioral shifts. Traders increasingly prioritize defensive strategies, with capital retreating to safer assets as speculative positioning declines. This dynamic aligns with technical indicators showing Bitcoin trapped in a tightening falling wedge pattern, with key support at $115,086 and resistance at $118,102 [3]. The narrowing range reflects reduced participation from large-cap investors, compounded by declining exchange inflows and elevated short-term capitalization. Analysts at AInvest and Mitrade observe that declining momentum and ETF outflows—such as those from institutional investors—further amplify liquidity concerns, creating a fragile environment for price stability [4].

The interplay between technical structure and macroeconomic factors remains critical. While the falling wedge pattern inherently supports a breakout, weak on-chain flows and mixed macro signals delay clarity. For instance, a sustained rebound above $118,102 would require a surge in buying pressure, which current volume levels fail to confirm. Conversely, a breakdown below $115,086 could trigger deeper corrections, particularly if inflation readings or central bank policies further restrict risk-taking. ETF outflows, meanwhile, indicate a recalibration of risk exposure, with hedge funds and corporate investors adopting a wait-and-see approach [5].

Bitcoin Vector’s system emphasizes the importance of early detection in navigating these shifts. By blending on-chain data with price structure models, the Risk-Off Signal provides non-reactive insights into capital flight. Analysts caution that prolonged consolidation often precedes sharp breakouts, but the absence of catalysts—such as regulatory clarity or macroeconomic tailwinds—has dampened confidence. As liquidity tightens and volatility intensifies, investors must balance technical analysis with macroeconomic signals to gauge Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Sources:

[1] CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin Risk-Off Signal Extends as Market Liquidity Tightens Again

[2] Twitter, Bitcoin Vector Status

[3] AInvest, Bitcoin Trapped in Tightening Falling Wedge

[4] Mitrade, Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Extends Correction Amid Weakening Momentum

[5] Medium, Daily Crypto Insights: Macro Swings, Altcoin Unlocks