Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $84K Stand: Bearish $14B Options vs Institutional Rally Hopes

Bitcoin traded near $88,000 on Nov. 24, 2025, as traders braced for a $14 billion options expiry set for Dec. 26, with market sentiment split between cautious optimism and bearish positioning. The cryptocurrency had fallen more than 30% from its October peak above $126,000, testing key support levels amid record outflows from exchange-traded funds and shifting macroeconomic dynamics. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest U.S. Bitcoin ETF, saw a $523 million single-day redemption on Nov. 18, extending a five-day outflow streak totaling $1.425 billion. However, institutional inflows resumed on Nov. 21, with IBIT attracting $60.6 million as Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth funds tripled their holdings in the third quarter.

The options market reflected deepening bearish sentiment, with the $80,000 put becoming the most popular bet on Deribit, holding $2.01 billion in open interest-surpassing the $1.97 billion in the $85,000 put. This followed a broader shift in derivatives activity, as 84% of call options with expiries in December were struck above $91,000, levels now out of reach for Bitcoin's current price. A massive institutional trade further highlighted market expectations: a 20,000 BTC "call condor" worth $1.74 billion targeted a controlled rally to $100,000–$112,000 by year-end, executed via Paradigm on Nov. 24.

Macro factors amplified uncertainty. Weak U.S. labor data, including a four-week average of 13,500 private-sector job losses, and a drop in consumer confidence to 88.7 fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Yet, Bitcoin's correlation with equities remained strong, with the Nasdaq 100 index influencing crypto sentiment as both assets faced liquidity pressures. Meanwhile, the S&P 500's 5% drawdown contrasted sharply with Bitcoin's 33% decline from its all-time high, underscoring divergent performance between crypto and traditional markets.

Technical analysis pointed to a critical juncture. Bitcoin's price hovered near $84,000, a key support level that, if breached, could trigger a cascade toward $75,000. On-chain data showed mid-tier "whales" accumulating at discounted levels, while leveraged funds and retail investors exited the market. Analysts noted that sustained ETF inflows above $500 million weekly and a Fed dovish pivot could reignite bullish momentum, but failure to defend $84,000 would likely deepen the correction.

The $14B options expiry on Dec. 26 added another layer of complexity. Scenarios modeling Bitcoin's price between $85,000–$92,000 showed net favor for put options, with neutral-to-bearish outcomes probable unless the asset rallied 15% to $100,000. Institutional positioning suggested a preference for range-bound trading, with the call condor structure capping potential gains above $118,000.

As the market approached year-end, liquidity constraints and diverging investor behavior defined the landscape. While long-term holders accumulated strategically, leveraged traders and short-term investors faced mounting losses, with daily realized losses among short-term holders hitting $630 million - the highest since 2022. The path forward hinged on macroeconomic clarity, ETF flow reversals, and Bitcoin's ability to stabilize above $84,000.