Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $80K Support Gains Strength as Macro Liquidity Shifts Take Hold

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has emerged as a vocal optimist in the cryptocurrency market, asserting that Bitcoin (BTC) has found a critical support level at $80,000 and is poised for a recovery driven by macroeconomic liquidity shifts. Hayes, who has long analyzed the interplay between fiat liquidity and crypto markets, argues that the Federal Reserve's impending halt to quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 will catalyze a "rising-tide effect" for digital assets. This prediction aligns with on-chain data showing Bitcoin's fastest capitulation event since late 2022, where a 35% drawdown to $80,500 coincided with rapid absorption of forced sellers, suggesting the floating supply has been flushed out.

The bullish narrative is further bolstered by statistical models. Astronomer, a Bitcoin analyst, cited a historical capitulation-volume pattern-three consecutive high-volume red weekly candles-identifying 11 prior instances where this signaled major reversals. In eight of those cases, Bitcoin entered new all-time highs, forecasting a 91% probability of a rebound to $118,000 from current levels. Meanwhile, the network value to transaction (NVT) golden cross dipped to -1.6, traditionally signaling undervaluation and short-term mean reversion opportunities, though traders like Darkfost caution against leverage in the current environment.

Macro liquidity trends are central to Hayes's outlook. He highlighted rising U.S. bank lending in November and the Fed's QT pause as key drivers, arguing that liquidity expansion-not sentiment-will fuel the next bull phase. This view is echoed by Swissblock, which noted a sharp decline in its "Risk-Off Signal," suggesting the most intense selling phase may have passed https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arthur-hayes-forecasts-btc-drop-160811683.html. However, the market remains fragile, with $1.94 billion in digital asset outflows last week, led by BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF.

The $80,000 level has become a psychological battleground. If BTC falls below this threshold, analysts warn of accelerated selling, with the price potentially consolidating between $60,000–$80,000, a range seen in past mid-cycle corrections. Short-term holders have already dumped 62,000 BTC at a loss, with November 22's exchange inflows hitting $81,000-the largest since mid-July. Institutional behavior suggests caution. Large holders (over 1,000 BTC) reduced exposure by 1.5% in October, while corporate entities like MicroStrategy face potential $2.8 billion–$11.6 billion outflows if delisted from major indices.

Hayes also linked Bitcoin's recent plunge to a contraction in dollar liquidity, noting that hedge funds have propped up prices through basis trades using ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT. As these trades become less profitable with falling BTC prices, a negative feedback loop could deepen the selloff. Yet, derivatives positioning reveals guarded optimism: a 20,000 BTC "call condor" on Deribit targets a $100K–$112K rebound by December 2025, capping gains at $118K.

The market's trajectory hinges on stabilizing ETF flows and sustained spot demand above $84,000. While Hayes and Astronomer remain bullish on $80K as a floor, the path to recovery is fraught with geopolitical risks, including trade tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which triggered $3.57 billion in November liquidations. For now, traders are bracing for volatility, with the NVT signal and on-chain recovery metrics offering conflicting signals between short-term undervaluation and long-term uncertainty.