Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $6B Expiry: Max Pain or Breakout?

Bitcoin Options Expiry Prompts Caution Among Traders as $6 Billion Contracts Mature

The cryptocurrency market faces a pivotal test as nearly $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options reach expiry on October 24, with traders navigating heightened volatility amid record open interest and strategic positioning, according to a Yahoo Finance report. Deribit, a major derivatives exchange, reports $5.1 billion in Bitcoin options and $754 million in Ethereum options maturing at 8:00 UTC, with "max pain" levels set at $113,000 for Bitcoin and $3,950 for Ethereum—thresholds where the largest number of contracts expire worthless. Put-to-call ratios of 0.90 for Bitcoin and 0.77 for Ethereum suggest cautious optimism about upward price movement, though near-term uncertainty persists as traders balance risk ahead of key macroeconomic data, including the U.S. September CPI report and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.

The expiry event coincides with a broader market environment marked by subdued volatility, with Bitcoin's implied volatility at 40 and Ethereum's at 60, reflecting a temporary pause in the wild swings seen earlier in the year. Deribit analysts note that traders are maintaining exposure into expiry, with calls above $120,000 gaining traction and puts at $100,000 attracting attention. Short-dated puts saw premium spikes earlier this week as hedging demand surged, while long-dated Ethereum calls extending into 2026 highlight lingering bullish sentiment.

Beyond options expiry, Bitcoin's price dynamics in 2025 are increasingly shaped by spot ETF flows and thin liquidity, with exchange balances hitting six-year lows, according to a Coinotag analysis. Over 1,670 entities hold 1,000+ BTC, a level not seen since 2021, and whales often use over-the-counter desks to execute large trades discreetly. For example, an "insider whale" address netted $12.63 million across 12 consecutive profitable trades before closing long positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as detailed in a Coinotag report. Meanwhile, an alleged "Trump insider whale" recently closed a $200 million Bitcoin short, securing $6.4 million in profits and bringing its lifetime earnings on perpetuals platforms to nearly $100 million, according to a Decrypt article.

Macro factors further complicate the landscape. The pardoning of Binance's Changpeng Zhao by U.S. President Donald Trump triggered a 5% spike in BNB prices, noted in a TradingView digest, while a $506 million XRP transfer and a dormant Satoshi-era Bitcoin wallet's $440 million movement underscore the unpredictable influence of large players. Hyperliquid trader 0xc2a3, known for a 100% win rate, recently amplified its Ethereum exposure to 33,270 ETH ($131.24 million) with 5x leverage, signaling confidence in a potential $4,000 breakout, according to a Coinotag post.

Traders are advised to monitor a mix of on-chain metrics, ETF flows, and macroeconomic catalysts. Deribit analysts caution that while expiry-related volatility often stabilizes after 8:00 UTC, the interplay of thin liquidity, whale activity, and central bank policy will likely keep Bitcoin in a tight trading range until clearer directional signals emerge.