Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $62K Crash Risk Rooted in Fed's Data-Blackout Dilemma

Bitcoin Price Faces $62K Crash Risk Amid Fed Uncertainty

The cryptocurrency market remains in a precarious state as Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near $103,000, with analysts warning of a potential $62,000 crash amid unresolved Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and lingering effects of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown. The shutdown, which halted critical data releases, has created a "data blackout" that has muddied the Fed's decision-making process.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged the lack of reliable inflation and labor data, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing the need for "somewhat restrictive" policy to combat stubborn 3% inflation.

The resumption of government operations on November 13 has injected temporary optimism into crypto markets, with Bitcoin rebounding above $102,000 and Ethereum showing signs of accumulation. However, the broader market remains fragile. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, holds $82 billion in assets but has seen fluctuating inflows since the October crash, underscoring institutional hesitancy. Total AUM for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at $140 billion, a 40% increase from January 2025, but this resilience contrasts with the broader market's 20% decline from its October peak.

Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have become a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. While a dovish pivot could weaken the dollar and support risk assets, the odds of a December cut have fallen to 52%, down sharply from 95% in early November. This uncertainty has dampened investor confidence, with Harvard Endowment's $443 million investment in BlackRock's IBIT ETF highlighting institutional bullishness amid market volatility. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals $1.3 billion in Ethereum whale purchases, suggesting long-term holders are accumulating during the downturn.

The U.S. Bitcoin mining sector, however, faces a different challenge. Despite a marginal increase in global hashrate share to 37.75% by year-end, domestic miners remain outpaced by international competitors with stronger government support. President Trump's "MADE IN THE USA" Bitcoin promises have yet to translate into federal incentives, leaving U.S. miners to expand capacity without policy backing.

With the Fed's December meeting looming and October CPI data still delayed, Bitcoin traders remain on edge. For now, the market is caught between institutional confidence in ETFs and macroeconomic headwinds, with November poised as a critical month for clarity.